Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted Fri 18th June 17:00
What an incredible month June is turning out to be. Until now heavy rain and flooding have been making the news. Next week the heat takes its turn and there is a possibility of exceptional conditions.
Computer models are consistently showing it turning much warmer next week. In fact a lot of them indicate an exceptional feed of upper level warmth moving northwards across France, and into the UK and the Benelux countries.
The pattern I think is quite an unusual one. High pressure is centred in the Atlantic and the set-up is being driven by a poorly defined area of low pressure to the southwest. The GFS chart below shows very warm upper level air covering all of the UK next Wednesday with the highest temperatures over England.
A couple of points to note are:
1) There appears to be more of an easterly component to the feed than would often be the case in a classic plume pattern. Therefore the hottest conditions may be further west than usual.
2) The long sea track and cyclonic nature of the pattern are leading to some astonishingly high dew point forecasts. Those combined with the heat would make for stifling conditions and could cause public health problems
At the 850 hPa level, approximately 1500m above sea level, new temperature records are being modelled. Values as high as 25C or even 26C are being posted over the UK on some runs.
Normally adding about 16C to those values would give an indication of what could be expected at the ground. Therefore 41C wouldn't be out of the question. However, computer models are not suggesting that will happen. Generally they are pegging temperatures down to around 34C, due to the possibility of cloud, thunderstorms and winds.
The GEFS 06z plot below shows the forecast London temperature spread. As I mentioned 34C is about the tops, but another thing worth remembering is that GEFS has a tendency to underestimate by a couple of C, therefore 36C may be achievable.
In summary there is growing support for a spell of hot weather next week. It could be an exceptional one. Temperature records may be under threat in France and the Benelux countries. In the UK upper level warmth may approach or even exceed records. At the ground level the combination of heat and high humidity could make sleepless conditions difficult for many people and also cause some health issues.
At the moment it looks as though the heat will begin to break towards next weekend. Thunderstorms may also be a talking point. They are likely at times during the hot period and probably become more widespread when it begins to breakdown. Therefore flash floods may also be thrown into the equation for some.
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