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Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted Mon 10th June 11:24
Large parts of England and Wales will be very wet during the next few days. There is the likelihood of some very large rainfall totals being recorded. In the longer term there are signs of an improvement.
The Meteo France Arpege forecast chart below shows aggregate rainfall between 00:00 GMT today and 00:00 GMT on Thursday 13th June. Totals of between 80mm and 100mm are predicted in parts of central England and eastern Wales. That is a lot of rain for 3 days in that part of the UK, although it would be less unusual in the north west.
Precipitation forecasts are often fickle and the details are changing from model run to model run. Nonetheless the general picture is quite consistent.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) chart below shows accumulated precipitation for the next 5 days. It looks reasonably consistent with the Arpege in terms of where the largest rainfall totals are likely to be.
One thing both charts aren't really highlighting is the possibility of very heavy showers developing in the south eastern corner this afternoon. They could produce intense but hit and miss downpours. Catch one of those and the local aggregate rainfall could be even higher than the models suggest.
The heaviest rain in the southern half of the UK this week is expected in the next few days. Through the second half of the week the area of low pressure responsible for the deluge probably starts to head northwards. That could mark the start of a pattern change.
A number of computer model runs are showing low pressure becoming centred to the northwest of the UK as high pressure over Greenland starts to weaken. In turn that allows ridges to build across the south at times. It would be a more typical pattern with the driest and warmest periods becoming focused on the south.
In my view it is too early to be confident about a medium term change regardless of what the computer models show. It can often be difficult to break out of patterns like and several "failed" attempts may be needed. We will see! However, taken at face value the GEFS plot for London suggests an increasing chance of drier and more typical weather after the next few days.
Much of the southern half of the UK will be very or even exceptionally wet in the next few days. Localised flooding is possible and in places aggregate rainfall totals could be close to 100m. In the longer term the forecast data suggests an improvement but it is too early to call. Weather patterns like the one we are locked into now can be quite persistent.
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