The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Exceptionally mild weather

Posted Tue 19th February 2019 19:00

We are still in the meteorological winter but the recent mildness makes it easy to forget. During the next few days temperatures climb further and the word warm may be appropriate. Will things change in March?

Very mild but what about a new record?

The rest of the week looks very mild but will the all time February temperature record fall? It currently stands at 19.7C (67F) and was recorded in Greenwich, London, in 1998. At this stage I'm not discounting the possibility of a new record but things are very marginal. 

GFS model runs are consistently showing maximum temperatures of 16C or 17C on Friday or Saturday. Local maximums can often be up to a couple of degrees higher than raw computer model data shows, so it's not out of the question that we could reach 19C or 20C. Some of the highest values are appearing in North Wales, presumably as a result of a foehn effect that is being modelled.

The chart below shows GFS forecast maximum temperatures for 15:00 GMT, Friday 22nd February.

The mildness continues this weekend but temperatures may be tempered a little. The GFS chart below is for 15:00 GMT, Saturday 23rd February. The highest temperatures by then are in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.

Other computer models are reasonably consistent with the GFS. I've not seen any of the major ones putting in values higher than 17C (63F). 

Colder in March?

The very mild weather continues through the first half of next week. Thereafter the chance of it turning cooler or colder begins to increase. The GEFS ensemble plot below shows a wide upper air temperature spread developing during the first week of March. There are still a number of mild solutions in the ensemble, so a transition to cold weather is far from certain. At this stage it's a case of watching and waiting.  

TL;DR?

Exceptionally mild winter weather continues in the coming days. Computer model simulations are showing temperatures falling a little short of the all time February record. Nonetheless there is a low to moderate possibility of a new record being set on Friday or Saturday.  

In the longer term the chance of colder weather increases. It's not certain though and a milder pattern could still win out early next month. 

Chart inventory

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