The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

The rest of February

Posted Tue 12th February 2019 18:32

The weather will be very mild in the short term. However, last year the coldest spell of the winter were didn't arrive until the end of February. Can we expect another Beast From The East this year?

Will the cold return this month?

The short answer is probably not if the medium range computer models are correct. The in depth answer is more nuanced.

Today's 16 day London GEFS 12z plot suggests a mild or even warm upper level air mass will cover the UK for much of the period. Temperatures do fall between 18/02 and 21/02 but only to around the average. In the longer term most of the individual runs have it turning very mild again with the 850hPa temperature mean close to 8C above its 30 year norm.

The positive anomaly is similar in magnitude to the negative one last February when the Beast was in full flow. Superficially the weather is almost the compete opposite but dig a little deeper and there are some similarities. In particular both spells are the result of blocking areas of high pressure.

Last year high pressure became centred to the northeast of the UK and bitterly cold polar continental air flooded across continental Europe. This year it is positioned closer to the Alps and consequently the UK is left under a south or southwesterly flow with air being pulled up from North Africa. A very mild or warm direction at any time of the year.

On the GEFS plot I've highlighted the cold outlier run. An outlier is a run that has little or no support from other members of the ensemble, so the chance of it being correct is low. There have been a few other runs in recent days showing the high pressure migrating northwards and very cold air pushing in from the east or north. They are in a small minority, so although a route to cold weather this month exists, the data suggests it has a low chance of happening.

TL;DR

Predominantly mild or very mild weather is here for the rest of the week. Early next temperatures probably fall back towards the seasonal average for a few days before mild air returns. In the longer term I'm not discounting the chance of winter returning but the data suggests February is most likely to end with above average temperatures.

Chart inventory

Your comments

Open from 7am to 11pm. Off topic comments may result in your account being blocked.

Log in

Sign in with your TWO siteaccount

Recommended because it will give you access to extra features. Create your free TWO site account

Sign in with TWO

---

Or authenticate with your Facebook or Google account.

Characters left 350

antss1 6 years ago Show replies(0)

Buzz can you tell me why it some times freezes just as the sun comes over the horizon like it did this morning, I was out side at 5 it was mild at least 4 or 5c then just as the sun come up the grass turned white noticed it alot over the year's e

Update

1 

For terms and conditions see Readers Comments on the Cookie and privacy policy page.