Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted Wed 14th November 15:34
Very mild weather continues during the next few days but temperatures will start dipping this weekend. Next week is looking cold and that may set the tone for the rest of November and early December.
The transition to colder weather will be brought about by high pressure migrating northwards towards Scandinavia. That leads to colder air pushing westwards across continental Europe and towards the UK. In the next few days daytime temperatures could approach 18C but by Sunday maximum values will be closer to 11C. The cooling trend continues early next week.
The London GEFS 06z plot below shows the transition nicely. In the short term 850hPa temperatures remain way above the 30 year average but by the weekend they begin to drop. Most of the runs have values falling to -5C or a tad lower by early next week, although the GFS Operational run (thick green line) takes longer to get there. Either way, the GEFS offers solid support for it to turn colder.
The London snow row value reaches 5 which suggests the chance of snow flakes reaching ground level is about 22% on November 22nd. To calculate the percentage chance it is: (100/23)*snow row value.
The GEFS chart I've been discussing shows the cold continuing in the longer term. The mean 850hPa temperature stays between 3C and 6C below the average until the end of the run which is November 30th.
One point of interest is the GFS 6z operational run which is represented by the thick green line. Notice how it goes even colder after November 27th with 850hPa temperatures dropping to -10C. That's approaching "Big Freeze" territory. I've included a synoptic chart below from the GFS 6z operational run for the 26th November so it is possible to see the set up it is proposing. Basically deep cold pooling becomes established and pushes westwards across much of Europe. If that were to happen we could be looking at a very cold and snowy start to the meteorological winter. However, at this stage it is a possibility and nothing more.
The exceptional mildness gives way to colder weather next week. It could become cold enough for snow to fall to low levels at times and the computer models suggest the period of below average temperatures will be quite lengthy. There is a chance of the meteorological winter starting off on a very cold note but it is too early to be confident about that.
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