Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted Tue 18th September 16:34
Ali, the first named storm of the season is expected to bring disruption to parts of the UK during the next 36 hours. Heavy outbreaks of rain and wind gusts of close to 75mph are forecast in parts of the north and north west.
Gales or severe gales are expected to the main problem caused by Storm Ali. At this time of year the trees are still almost in full leaf so there is enhanced potential for them to be uprooted and blocks roads and railway lines. The strongest winds are likely to be in the north west during the morning and then in southern and central Scotland later on.
This morning's Meteo France Arpege shows the strongest winds at 09:00 GMT tomorrow morning in Northern Ireland, north Wales and north western England. Gusts are exceeding 50mph over land and 60mph in the Irish Sea.
By 15:00 GMT the strong winds have transferred to southern and central Scotland. Maximum gusts inland are close to 80mph and over the North Sea they are approaching 90mph.
Arpege is one of the best short to medium range models but in my experience it can sometimes over egg maximum wind speeds. The 12z update this evening will be interesting.
View Arpege wind gust charts
Today's GFS 06z update show lower maximum wind speeds than the Arpege. Having said that both models show a very similar picture at 09:00 GMT tomorrow. The GFS chart shows gusts of 65mph in the Irish Sea.
By 12:00 GMT GFS has the strongest winds in north eastern England with gusts of around 63mph. That is a little different to what most other models are showing, however I wouldn't discount it completely.
Again the key will be to see what the GFS 12z update shows.
View GFS wind gust charts
The DWD ICON 6z run has really gone to town with Storm Ali. At 09:00 GMT gusts are approaching 70mph in the Irish Sea and in north Wales 83mph is shown. That's much higher than what the other models are showing.
By 15:00 GMT the strongest winds are in central and southern Scotland. That's similar to what the Arpege is showing, but look at the values! In the area between Edinburgh, Perth and Dundee gusts as high as 98mph are shown on the plot. So that really is at the top end of the computer model predictions and on this occasion the likelihood is that the ICON run has gone off on one!
Storm Ali is set to cause disruption in parts of the UK tomorrow. The main problems will probably be caused by strong winds, but heavy outbreaks of rain may also make driving difficult in Northern Ireland, north western England and much of Scotland. Most computer models show maximum wind speeds of close to 75mph but some outliers have gusts in excess of 80mph and they are not completely discounted. In areas further south and east the gusts won't be as strong but it will still be windy.
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