Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
A large blocking area of high pressure will be situated over eastern Scandinavia and Russia during the coming days. The question for us in the UK is how far west will it extend?
The latest medium range computer model data shows the UK sitting near the boundary between the Atlantic flow and the continental area of high pressure. This type of pattern isn't unusual and in my experience the block often sits just a little too far east to keep us dry. That may be the case next week, although southern and eastern areas could have a lot of fair weather.
Another potential problem is that as weather systems bump into the blocking high pressure they grind to a halt. That means the rain keeps falling in the same location and it can lead to problems with flooding. That possibility is something to keep an eye on and I'd not be surprised to see it becoming very wet in the west and northwest.
The forecast details are uncertain though and it wouldn't take much adjustment in the set-up for a very different outcome. If the high pressure pushes slightly westwards the UK could end with a good deal of fine weather. On the other hand if it's centred more to the east and the Atlantic flow will bring spells of rain to all regions.
The North Atlantic chart below is from today's GFS06z model run. It shows forecast precipitation type and surface pressure on Thursday 28th September. The high pressure block is centred too far east to keep the UK dry and a band of rain is affecting central regions.
The ECM00z model also shows the block a tad too far east to bring an Indian Summer to our shores. The other thing to highlight is the isobars are quite tightly packed which means it would be quite windy. In fact with quite a steep pressure gradient across the UK strong winds are likely at times.
A large blocking high pressure will become the dominant feature of the weather over the continent during the next week or longer. Unfortunately it may not want to play ball with the UK and we could remain under a more changeable Atlantic flow. Certainly the west is likely to have further spells of rain and strong winds. The south and east should be drier but even there some wet weather can't be ruled out. As I said above forecast details are uncertain because small changes to the positioning of the blocks will have a big impact on the UK's weather. Both drier and wetter outcomes on offer.
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