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Thursday starts with patchy outbreaks of rain in the south east and East Anglia. Elsewhere there are scattered showers but it is mainly dry. The wet weather in the south east is slowly replaced by brighter conditions from the west today. Before it moves away some heavy bursts of rain are possible. Elsewhere sunny spells develop but there will be heavy showers in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England.

Temperatures range from 16C (61F) in the north west to 24C (75F) in the south. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Thu 18th July

Tonight showers become more scattered in the north west. Other areas start dry but by the end of the night an area of rain pushes into Wales and western England.

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Autumn 2019 prospects

Tomorrow the rain spreads northeastwards across much of the UK. Northern Scotland remains brighter and showery. Drier conditions follow on from the west for a time before further heavy outbreaks of rain push eastwards across southern and central counties overnight.

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Fri 19th July

Hot early next week

On Saturday early rain in the east clears to leave heavy and frequent showers showers in most of the UK. The driest spells are likely to be near to the south coast and in the far north. It will be cool.

By Sunday it becomes drier and warmer in England and Wales. In Northern Ireland outbreaks of rain return and during the second half of the day they probably extend across much of Scotland.

Next week probably starts fine in most of the UK. By Tuesday temperatures could reach 33C (91F) in the south. The north west has more changeable conditions and there is a risk of disturbances from the Atlantic bringing rain as they brush past.

During the middle part of the week it looks as though cooler weather will return southeastwards. The timing of the transition is not certain. Most computer model runs currently show it taking place between July 25th and 28th. The extent of the rain and thunderstorm risk during the breakdown is also speculative at this range. 

GFS max temperatures, 16:00 BST Tue 23rd July

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Temperatures remain close to the average for much of the time. A mix of settled and changeable periods is expected. View latest GEFS.