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Sunny spells but thundery rain too

[Updated 07:50 23/06/2019]

Lightning strikes

The weather during the coming days will be increasingly warm and humid. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to increase but there should be plenty of dry and bright periods too. Through the second half of the week a potentially record breaking plume of upper level warmth moves northwards across western Europe. Temperatures could exceed 40C in France and the UK probably continues to heat up as winds turn into more of a southeasterly direction....READ IN FULL

Sunday starts with patchy rain in the south west and west. Elsewhere it is dry. Through the day outbreaks of rain spread northeastwards and become heavier. By early evening they stretch from Northern Ireland across much of Wales and into northern England. In places thunderstorms and downpours are possible. Areas to the south and north remain mainly dry, although a few showers are possible in Scotland.

It will be warmer than recently. Temperatures range from 18C (64F) in the north west to a warm 26C (78F) in the south. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Sun 23rd June

Tonight heavy thundery spells of rain move northwards into Scotland. To the south of them there will be scattered showers but it should be mainly dry.


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Monthly forecast

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Summer forecast Issued 01/06/2019


Tomorrow rain in Scotland slowly edges northwards. Elsewhere sunny spells develop but cloudbursts and thunderstorms are expected to break out over much of the country. Central and eastern England may stay mainly dry and bright. It will be very warm and humid in the sun. Temperatures could reach 28C (82F) in central and eastern England.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Mon 24th June

Very warm, very humid

During Tuesday very warm upper level air feeds in from the southeast. However cloudy skies and surface level winds blowing in from the North Sea are likely to cap temperatures to the mid 20Cs. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected. 

Little changes on Wednesday. Many places have sunny spells but further thundery showers are possible across the southern half of the UK. It remains warm and humid.

Forecast details for the rest of the week are uncertain. Computer models are showing an exceptional plume of warmth continuing to push northwards across western Europe. Upper level warmth over the UK could break records by the end of the week. It could also heat up at ground level with temperatures possibly heading towards 34C (93F) by the weekend. It also remains very humid.

Much cooler and fresher weather is expected to return by the start of July.

GFS forecast 850hPa temperatures

GFS 850hPa temperatures, 13:00 BST Fri 28th June

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A trend towards drier conditions is shown in the short term. Around the 20th June the risk of it turning wetter increases again. Temperatures fluctuate but in the south it could become warm or very warm for a time. View latest GEFS.


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