Frozen In Time

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Mixed weekend on the way

[Updated 07:15 22/06/2019]

Broken cloud

Much of the country has fine weather today but tomorrow heavy rain pushes northeastwards. Next week a potentially record breaking plume of upper level warmth moves northwards across western Europe. All time temperature records are under threat in France, Germany and the Benelux countries. The UK probably becomes hot too, but several factors could peg back ground level temperatures....READ IN FULL

Saturday starts dry across the UK. During the course of the day scattered showers develop across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere it stays dry and bright.

It will be warmer than recently. Temperatures range from 18C (64F) in the north west to 24C (75F) in the south east. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, cloud cover, 16:00 BST Sat 22nd June

Tonight scattered showers continue in the north. In other areas it will be dry, but by the morning outbreaks of rain push into the south west.


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Monthly forecast

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Summer forecast Issued 01/06/2019


Tomorrow heavy and thundery rain moves northeastwards. It affects much of the north and west of the UK. In central and eastern England some showery rain is possible, but it should remain mostly dry and warm. Scotland has sunny spells and showers.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Sun 23rd June

Record breaking heat plume possible

Monday brings a mix of sunny spells and thunderstorms to much of the country. In Scotland more prolonged outbreaks of rain continue. In the sunshine it will feel warm and humid.

During Tuesday very warm upper level air feeds in from the southeast. However cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms probably hold down temperatures. Nonetheless it will be very warm in central and eastern England during sunny spells.

Forecast details for the rest of the working week are uncertain. A large and possibly record breaking plume of warmth pushes northwards across western Europe. The UK will be close to its eastern edge but computer models continue to show upper air temperatures approaching all time records. At ground level temperatures may be pegged back by the combination of cloud and thunderstorms. Maximum values of around 34C (93F) are currently being predicted by the GFS model. The high levels of humidity may make the UK feel more like Florida for a time.

GFS forecast 850hPa temperatures

GFS 850hPa temperatures, 13:00 BST Sat 29th June

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A trend towards drier conditions is shown in the short term. Around the 20th June the risk of it turning wetter increases again. Temperatures fluctuate but in the south it could become warm or very warm for a time. View latest GEFS.


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