Frozen In Time

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Heavy rain and risk of flooding

[Updated 07:00 10/06/2019]

Flood sign

There is very little sign of flaming June this week. In the next few days heavy outbreaks of rain affect much of England and Wales as areas of low pressure slowly push up from the south. There is a possibility of flooding and some computer models show rain totals locally exceeding 100mm by the end of Wednesday....READ IN FULL

Monday starts wet in the south east and East Anglia. Elsewhere it is mainly dry. Through the day persistent outbreaks of rain spread northwestwards across much of England and Wales. The rain becomes heavy and surface water leads to difficult driving conditions. This afternoon it may brighten up in the south east, but heavy showers are possible. Scotland and Northern Ireland have a mix of sunny spells and showers.

Temperatures range from 10C (50F) in the wet areas to 19C (66F) in the north west. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Mon 10th June

Tonight it turns drier in the south eastern corner. Heavy rain continues in parts of Wales as well as central and western England. Other areas should be mainly dry.


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Monthly forecast

Buzz

Summer forecast Issued 01/06/2019


Tomorrow will be another wet day in much of southern and central Britain. The outbreaks of rain are likely to be patchier than today and in the south sunny spells are possible. A few showers develop in the north but many places remain dry. It will generally be cool, especially in the wet areas. In the south temperatures could approach 20C (68F) if the clouds break for long enough.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Tue 11th June

Unsettled spell possibly moderates

The very unsettled theme continues on Wednesday. Areas of low pressure become slow moving over England and Wales. If anything rain probably becomes more persistent and widespread. The heaviest outbreaks are expected to be in central England and Wales. The north should stay brighter and showery conditions could return to southern England too.

The changeable weather is forecast to continue through the rest of the week. All regions have further showers or longer spells of rain. However the likelihood of drier and brighter interludes increases in the south. There are tentative signs of a more typical synoptic pattern returning with low pressure becoming established further north and a ridge building across the south. 

GFS forecast 500hPa heights and pressure

GFS 500hPa heights and pressure, 16:00 BST Fri 14th June

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Very wet conditions are shown in the southern half of the UK early on. In the longer term it remains changeable with upper air temperatures close to the 30 year average. View latest GEFS.


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