Frozen In Time

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Often cold but easterly cancelled

[Updated 09:00 20/01/2019]

Wintry scene

The weather this week will often be rather cold. It stays mainly dry today and for much of tomorrow. Things change tomorrow night as an active frontal system pushes southeastwards bringing rain, sleet and hill snow. Later in the week disturbances push in from the northwest bringing the risk of rain and hill snow. A cold easterly flow is no longer forecast to develop....READ IN FULL

Sunday starts with a widespread frost in central and eastern England. Elsewhere cloud has held temperatures up overnight and in Northern Ireland and western Scotland there are outbreaks of rain. This morning the area of rain pushes southeastwards but it becomes increasingly patchy. In the afternoon it could bring a few spots of rain and hill snow to northern England and northern Wales. Areas to the south and north of it will be dry and some bright spells develop. The best of the sunshine is expected in south eastern counties.

Temperatures range from 3C (36F) to 5C (41F) in central and eastern areas. The south west, Wales and Northern Ireland will be a little milder. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, precipitation type, 15:00 GMT Sun 20th January

Tonight cloud amounts vary and where clear spells form a frost quickly sets in. In the far north west thicker cloud could bring rain by the end of the night. 


Forecast short cuts

Monthly forecast update

Winter 2018/19 forecast [Issued 01/12/2018]

Buzz


Tomorrow eastern Scotland, England and Wales stay dry and cold. In Northern Ireland and western Scotland clouds thickens and winds strengthen. During the afternoon persistent outbreaks of rain develop and over the Scottish hills they readily turn to snow. It will be cold.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, precipitation type, 15:00 GMT Mon 21st January

During Monday night the wet weather spreads southeastwards. Some heavy bursts of rain are expected and in places they could turn to sleet or wet snow. The greatest risk of snow is over high ground. By the morning clearer and showery conditions return to most of the country, but it could be a wet start in the south east.

Tuesday will be cold. Sunny spells develop but wintry showers become heavy in the west and some of them may push southeastwards into central regions. Over high ground a covering of snow is possible.

The longer term outlook

It remains col through Wednesday and Thursday. Wintry showers affect the north west and widespread nighttime frosts develop. On Thursday there is a moderate risk of pushing into the south west and Wales, and over high ground it could turn to snow.

Computer models were pointing towards an easterly air stream setting in towards the end of the week. That is now unlikely to happen. Instead the UK remains under an Atlantic flow and disturbances bring the risk of rain at times with snow over high ground in the north. It probably becomes milder for a time.

In the longer term a mainly cold outlook continues to be favoured. Winds often come from a northerly quarter with high pressure centred to the west of the UK.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

GFS forecast pressure and 500hPa heights

GFS pressure and 500hPa heights, 15:00 GMT Thu 24th January

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Cold conditions are shown for most of the 16 day period. However, significant minority of runs show it turning less cold. There is an increased risk of sleet and snow. View latest GEFS.



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