Frozen In Time

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Heavy rain spreading eastwards

[Updated 07:00 05/12/2018]

Wet weather

Unsettled weather continues for the next few days. All areas have outbreaks of rain and it becomes very windy or stormy at times. This weekend it turns colder in the north and it look as though an easterly flow will become established over the UK next week. That could bring wintry showers to the east....READ IN FULL

Wednesday is off to a mixed start. In Scotland it is dry and there has been a widespread frost overnight. Elsewhere there are outbreaks of rain which are heavy in Northern Ireland, Wales and parts of northern England. Through the day heavy rain spreads eastwards and showery conditions follow into the west. Over high ground in northern England and southern Scotland snow is likely for a time. The northern half of Scotland remains mainly dry and bright.

Temperatures range from a cold 4C (39F) in Scotland to a very mild 14C (57F) in the south west. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, forecast precipitation type, 13:00 GMT Wed 5th December

Tonight the rain clears away from the east to leave drier conditions in all areas for a time. Later in the night the next batch of wet weather pushes into the north west and it is accompanied by strengthening winds.


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Winter 2018/19 forecast [Issued 01/12/2018]


Tomorrow rain in the north clears eastwards to leave brighter and showery conditions. In southern and central regions it is expected to be mostly overcast and there could be some patchy rain, particularly in the west. During the second half of the day it may become more persistent. It will be mild and windy in all regions.

Through Thursday night it becomes stormy with gales or severe gales in the west. Some computer models are predicting wind gusts of between 70mph and 80mph in exposed parts of the north west. Heavy rain will be an additional hazard in much of the UK and travel disruption is possible.

Colder and showery conditions return from the west on Friday. It remains very windy and over high ground in the north the showers turn wintry.

ICON forecast chart 1

DWD ICON, forecast wind gusts, 09:00 GMT Fri 7th December

Mixed weekend then colder next week

On Saturday outbreaks of rain push eastwards across much of the country and it remains windy. Northern Scotland probably stays drier and colder. Overnight and into Sunday the wet weather clears southeastwards and brighter conditions follow on. The northern half of the UK will cold and in the south temperatures dip down towards the seasonal average.  

There is still some uncertainty about next week's weather. Most, but not all, computer model runs show high pressure building over Scandinavia and a cold easterly flow becoming established. It is early in the season so there isn't the depth of cold to the north and east of the UK that there may be in January or February. Nonetheless it could be cold enough by the middle of the week for showers to turn wintry down to low levels and where skies clear nighttime frosts will readily develop.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

ECM 500hPa heights and pressure

ECM pressure and 500hPa heights, 00:00 GMT Wed 12th December

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Unsettled weather is favoured early on. Next week it turns colder and drier in all regions. Beyond that there is a signal for more changeable conditions to return. View latest GEFS.



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