Frozen In Time

Archived articles which have appeared on our homepage since May 7th 2014.

IMPORTANT : ARCHIVED CONTENT

Mild short term but a wintry outlook 

[Updated 07:00 13/11/2018]

Red sky

Southern areas have dry weather during the next few days but in the north it remains more unsettled initially. It will become very mild for mid November as high pressure builds over the continent and the Atlantic flow is blocked. By the weekend temperatures begin to edge downwards and there are increasing signs of it turning a lot colder next week....READ IN FULL

Tuesday starts with showers in northern England and south western Scotland. This morning the showers in the north gradually fade away and sunny spells develop. During the afternoon cloudier skies spread northeastwards and winds strengthen in the west. Outbreaks of rain push into Northern Ireland by the early evening.

Maximum temperatures range from 9C (48F) in Scotland to a very mild 15C (59F) in southern England. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 15:00 GMT Tue 13th November


Forecast short cuts

November outlook

Christmas 2018 countdown

Winter 2018/19 weather  - update 3


Tonight rain spreads across central and northern areas with the heaviest bursts in the west. Southern counties remain dry.

Tomorrow the wet and windy weather pushes northwards. The south has sunny spells and in the afternoon the brighter conditions extend into central Britain. It will be an unusually mild day for mid November.

GFS forecast chart 2

GFS, forecast temperatures, 15:00 GMT Wed 14th November

High pressure takes control

By Thursday high pressure centred over the continent will be ridging westwards and blocking the flow of Atlantic disturbances. That leaves the UK under a warm southerly air stream. The north west has further outbreaks of rain but elsewhere it is expected to be dry and sunny. Virtually the whole of the country has a dry Friday and temperatures in southern and central regions could reach 18C (64F).

By the weekend high pressure begins to build northwards. That allows cooler air to slowly begin filtering in from the southeast. On Saturday it remains mild but by Sunday temperatures become closer to the November average.

Next week it is expected to turn colder as an easterly flow develops. It is still early in the season so there isn't a lot of cold air over the continent, nonetheless there is a chance of showers in south eastern areas turning wintry later on.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

GFS 500hPa heights and MSLP

GFS, forecast MSLP and 500hPa heights, 15:00 GMT Mon 19th November

{ADVERT}

Register for the TWO community

If you would like to join the TWO community please see how to register for the forum. People with all levels of meteorological knowledge are very welcome to apply.

Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts

Temperature anomalies

DWD ICON forecast charts

EUMETSAT high resolution satellite images

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A changeable outlook is shown in the short term. In the mid term it becomes drier and very mild. View latest GEFS.



COMPUTER MODELS

INFO

Short range
Short to medium range
Medium to long range
Deterministic
Ensemble

See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data