Frozen In Time

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Warm weather returning this week

[Updated 07:10 08/10/2018]

Autumn colours

Persistent spells of rain affect the north west of the UK during the next couple of days. Elsewhere it will be fine and increasingly warm with Indian Summer like conditions developing, but on Thursday a band of rain and cooler air pushes eastwards. Once that clears the balance between low pressure areas in the Atlantic and high pressure over the continent becomes uncertain....READ IN FULL

Monday is off to a wet start in Northern Ireland and south western Scotland. Through the day the rain spreads northeastwards across Scotland and in the west it will be heavy. Drier conditions return behind it for a time but in the afternoon further outbreaks of rain push up across Northern Ireland. England and Wales have a dry day with sunny spells, although in the north thicker cloud could bring some drizzle at times.

Temperatures range from about 10C (50F) in the north to 18C (64F) in the south. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Mon 8th October


Forecast short cuts

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Winter 2018/19 weather  - update 2


Tonight wet weather continues to affect the north west of the UK. Elsewhere it will be dry and clear spells in the south lead to a cool night.

Tomorrow it is basically a case of rinse and repeat. Heavy rain continues in the far north west and flooding could increasingly become an issue. Elsewhere it will be dry and the combination of high pressure over the continent and low pressure to the northwest will be pulling up some very warm air from the southwest. In the afternoon temperatures could reach 21C (70F) in southern and central England.

Arpege forecast chart 2Meteo France Arpege, forecast pressure and rain, 16:00 BST Tue 9th October

Indian summer but then change?

By Wednesday the rain in the north west should finally have pulled away to leave dry and sunny periods in all areas. The upper air mass will be almost as warm as it was during the summer heatwaves but the shorter days limit the potential for temperatures to rise. Nonetheless maximum values could reach 24C (75F) to give an Indian Summer feel to the weather.

On Thursday a band of rain is expected to spread eastwards across the UK with somewhat cooler air following on. The wet weather may not reach eastern counties until late in the day and ahead of it there could be some warm sunshine.

During Friday and the weekend forecast uncertainty increases. High pressure over the continent may bring more fine weather to the south and east, but in the north west it could become stormy. During the weekend more changeable conditions try to spread southeastwards but high pressure may be reluctant to give ground.

GFS forecast chart 1

GFS, forecast pressure and 850hPa temperatures, 15:00 BST Sat 13th October

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