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Saturday starts with a band of heavy rain stretching from southwest England, up through Wales and into Yorkshire. This morning the wet weather pushes into southern counties and it is accompanied by strongish winds. Clearer conditions follow behind it and by the evening the rain becomes restricted to the southeastern corner. Scotland and Northern Ireland have a bright and chilly day with scattered showers early on.

The rain marks the boundary between mild and cold air masses. In the far south east 16C (61F) is possible but elsewhere temperatures range from about 8C (46F) to 11C (52F), and in the wet areas it will feel particularly cold. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 12:00 BST Sat 6th October

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Tonight the remnants of the wet weather clear the south eastern corner and clear spells develop. It will be cold and a widespread ground frost is expected. During the second half of the night temperatures lift in the north west as cloud builds and outbreaks of rain push in from the Atlantic

Tomorrow an area of high pressure topples southeastwards across the UK. That brings fine weather to much of England and Wales. In contrast Scotland and Northern Ireland will be wet and windy. The rain becomes heavy at times and severe gales are possible in western and northern Scotland.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Sun 7th October

Indian summer next week?

On Monday outbreaks of rain affect the north west of the UK. Elsewhere it should be dry but there is likely to a lot of cloud in central and northern regions. The south has sunny spells and it will be warmer than recently.

During Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure remains centred to the east of the UK. That allows Atlantic disturbances to keep the weather changeable in the far north west. Other areas probably stay dry and become increasingly warm will be pumped up from the southwest. An Indian Summer period is expected and temperatures may climb to 23C (73F) in England.

Through Thursday and Friday stormy conditions are possible in the far north west and a band of rain may spread eastwards across all areas with somewhat cooler air following it. However, high pressure over the continent is expected to re-assert its influence quickly.

GFS, forecast pressure and 850hPa temperatures, 15:00 BST Thu 11th October

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