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Sunday starts dry and cool in much of the UK but there showers in the north and west. Through the day the showers become heavier in the far north and they steadily spread southwards across Scotland and into north eastern England. Isolated showers also continue in Wales and south western England. Elsewhere it stays dry and bright. It will be windy in the north and gales are likely in exposed parts of the west.

Temperatures this afternoon range from 10C (50F) in northern Scotland to 15C (59F) in southern England. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Arpege, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Sun 30th September

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Tonight it becomes mainly dry, although near the east coast it remains windy and there could be further showers. Clear spells develop and a touch of frost is possible in sheltered locations by the morning.

Tomorrow it stays dry and bright in the southern half of the UK. The north starts dry but wet and windy weather progressively spreads across Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will be quite cold and over the Scottish mountains rain probably turns to snow.

Overnight and into Tuesday the outbreaks of rain push down into central counties, but they become increasingly patchy. Showery weather returns to the north of the UK. It is expected to be windy with gales in the north.

Arpege, forecast wind gusts, 16:00 BST Tue 2nd October

Mid term outlook

The rest of the week brings further spells of wet and windy weather to the north. There is the potential for a deep area of low pressure to track close to the north west of the country next weekend but forecast details are very uncertain at this stage. In southern and central Britain the focus is on dry periods but there is a chance of patchy outbreaks of rain pushing down from the northwest at times.

Predominantly settled weather may continue through the second week of October in the south. In the north it remains more changeable.

GFS, forecast pressure and 500hPA heights, 16:00 BST Thu 4th October

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

The southern half of the UK settled conditions for much of the time but during the middle third of October the risk of rain increases. The north has more mixed conditions but early on quite a lot of dry weather is shown. View latest GEFS.