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Thursday starts with rain in the far north but elsewhere it is dry. Through the day the cloudy and wet weather gradually  pushes southwards across the northern half of the UK but the rain becomes patchier. Drier and brighter conditions return to central and northern Scotland. Southern and central regions of Britain have a fine and sunny day.

There will be a big variation in temperature this afternoon. In northern Scotland a chilly 8C (46F) is about the best that can be expected as colder air moves in. That contrasts with a warm 23C (73F) in much of central and eastern England. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Arpege, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Thu 27th September

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Tonight the area of cloud and patchy rain moves down into central and southern counties. In the north frost and fog forms in places under clearing skies.

Tomorrow cloud in the southern half of the UK breaks to leave sunny periods. The north starts off bright and chilly but through the afternoon cloud shrouds northern Scotland and light outbreaks of rain develop. It will be cooler than it has been recently in the south. 

Arpege, forecast cloud cover, 16:00 BST Fri 28th September

Fine weekend but cool nights

High pressure becomes centred to the west of the UK this weekend. That leads to decent weather but with winds coming from a northwesterly direction it won't be particularly warm.   

Saturday should be dry and bright in southern and central regions. In the north there is a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain. The north has a chilly day but in the south temperatures won't be far off the late September average.

Sunday begins cold with frost and fog in places. During the day showery rain in the north may develop and spread southwards. However, southern and central counties should have mainly dry and bright weather.

GFS, forecast pressure and 500hPa heights, 16:00 BST Sun 30th September

High pressure in the south next week

The predominantly settled spell continues in the southern half of the UK early next week. In the north there is a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain as lower pressure and a westerly flow allow disturbances to push in from the Atlantic.  

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Mostly settled weather conditions return in the short term and it becomes warmer. In the mid term temperatures trend towards the average but a good deal of dry weather is shown, especially in the south. View latest GEFS.