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Wednesday starts dry and calm in southern and central areas. It's a different picture in the north with strong winds and outbreaks of rain. Through the day it remains windy but the wet weather becomes patchier and increasingly restricted to north western Britain and the far north of Scotland. In England, Wales, Northern Ireland and to the east of high ground in Scotland sunny spells develop.

It will be warmer than recently. Temperatures in eastern England could reach 21C (70F). See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Wed 26th September

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Tonight it will be wet in the far north and windy in northern areas. Southern and central regions have a dry night with clear spells.

Tomorrow morning rain and strong winds affect Scotland. Through the day outbreaks of rain push southeastwards into northern England but they become light and fragmented. Southern and central counties have a dry and bright day. Temperatures could reach 22C (72F) in much of central and eastern England but it will be cooler in the north.

By Friday the cooler air in the north will have pushed southwards across all regions. Despite that there should be a good deal of dry and bright weather.

Arpege, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Fri 28th September

Fine weekend but cool nights

High pressure remains in charge of the weather this weekend. That means dry and pleasantly warm days in much of the country. The nights are expected to be quite chilly and there is a risk of patchy frost and fog. In the north weak disturbances flowing over the top of the high pressure could lead to cloudier skies and patchy rain at times.

GFS, forecast pressure and 500hPa heights, 16:00 BST Sun 30th September

High pressure holds on next week

The predominantly settled spell is expected to continue next week with high pressure remaining close to the UK. At this time of the year it means an increasing risk of nighttime fog and frost developing. During the days it should be pleasantly warm in sunny spells but there is a risk of fog being slow to clear, if that happens temperatures will be pegged down.  

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Mostly settled weather conditions return in the short term and it becomes warmer. In the mid term temperatures trend towards the average but a good deal of dry weather is shown, especially in the south. View latest GEFS.