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Thursday starts with a band of rain stretching northeastwards from the south west to Lincolnshire. In Scotland it is very windy and there are heavy showers, but elsewhere there it is drier. This morning the rain slowly edges northwards into northern Wales and parts of northern England. During the afternoon and evening wet weather affects Northern Ireland, northern England, Wales and the south west. Much of Scotland has a bright day and a few sunny spells could develop in the south eastern corner of England.

In Scotland winds gradually ease through the day. The opposite happens in the south and in the afternoon gales are likely in the south west. Temperatures range from 9C (48F) in the north west to 21C (70F) in the south east. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Thu 20th September

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Tonight a deep area of low pressure tracks eastwards across the northern half of the UK. That will bring heavy rain and stormy conditions. The strongest winds will be on its southern and western flanks, and there is the potential for disruption. Gusts in southern England could exceed 55mph and in exposed parts of Wales and northern England 65mph or higher is shown by some computer models.  

Meteo France Arpege, forecast wind gusts, 04:00 BST Fri 21st September

By tomorrow morning clearer conditions will have returned to southern and central regions. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to have heavy showery spells of rain. The strongest winds transfer to eastern Britain as the low pressure area pulls away into the North Sea. Through the rest of the day heavy showers pepper much of the country but southern counties should have a good deal of dry and bright periods.

Disruption possible this weekend

The weekend probably start mostly dry but another area of low pressure will be moving in from the Atlantic and through Saturday morning bursts of rain develop in Wales and the south west. During the rest of the day there is the potential for heavy rain in much of the country but Scotland should remain dry.

There is uncertainty about how much the low pressure area will deepen and its behaviour will have a big impact on wind speeds. In recent days some computer model runs have shown gusts of well over 70mph on Sunday but the latest data suggests significantly lower wind speeds.

The wet weather probably continues for much of Sunday in southern and central regions. In the north and west it brighter and showery.  

GFS, forecast pressure and precipitation, 16:00 BST Sun 23rd September

High pressure returns next week?

More settled weather is favoured during the first half of next week. The driest and warmest conditions will probably be in the south as high pressure begins to have more influence. Northern areas remain more changeable and towards the end of the week the risk of rain may return southwards.

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