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Wednesday starts with very heavy rain in Northern Ireland, western Scotland and parts of north western England. It is also very windy in the west. The culprit is Storm Ali, the first named storm of the 2018/19 season.

This morning the rain spreads northeastwards across Scotland. It continues to be very windy with gusts of over 70mph possible in exposed parts of north Wales and in Northern Ireland. This afternoon the windiest conditions transfer to southern and central Scotland where gusts could reach 80mph. The wet weather becomes more focused on central and western Scotland as it turns drier in much of Northern Ireland and eastern Scotland.

Areas farther south and east have some showery rain but a lot of dry weather too. Cloud breaks develop at times and lead to some warm sunny spells. It won't be as windy as in the north and west with maximum gust speeds close to 40mph.   

Temperatures range from 12C (54F) in the north west to a warm 23C (73F) in the south east. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast wind gusts, 13:00 BST Wed 19th September

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Winter 2018/19 weather  - update 2

Tonight winds gradually ease. Showery rain continues in the north west and an area of wet weather is expected to push eastwards across southern and central counties.

Tomorrow persistent spells of rain slowly edge northwards over Wales and central England, and reach northern England and Northern Ireland in the afternoon. Areas to the south and north have a mostly dry day but it becomes windy in the south.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 15:00 BST Thur 20th September

Disruption possible this weekend

During Thursday night another area of low pressure moves eastwards across the northern half of the UK. Outbreaks of rain associated with it spread southeastwards and they will be heavy at times. It is expected to become very windy again with gales possible in much of England and Wales. Cooler and showery conditions follow into the north and they push southeastwards across all areas by Friday. It could be cold enough for sleet or snow over the Scottish mountains.

The weekend forecast details are uncertain but there is the potential for an area of low pressure to deepen over the UK and become a very nasty feature. That would bring the potential for more heavy rain and disruptive winds.

GFS, forecast pressure and 500hPa heights, 10:00 BST Sun 23rd September

High pressure returns next week?

More settled weather is favoured during the first half of next week. The driest and warmest conditions will probably be in the south as high pressure begins to have more influence. Northern areas remain more changeable and towards the end of the week the risk of rain may return southwards.

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Unsettled conditions are shown in the short term. Next week it becomes more settled generally, but especially in the south. View latest GEFS.