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Saturday starts with showery rain in parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and north west England. Through the morning the showers fade away and much of the country has sunny spells. This afternoon cloudier skies in the west spread eastwards and in the north west of the UK outbreaks of rain develop.

Temperatures range from 11C (52F) in the north west to 21C (70F) in the south eastern corner. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 18:00 BST Sat 15th September

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Tonight wet and windy weather pushes southeastwards across northern areas and gales are expected in exposed places. By the morning the rain reaches Wales and northern England. Clearer conditions follow into Scotland and Northern Ireland, and most of southern and central England remains dry.

Tomorrow the outbreaks of rain slowly edge southwards but they become increasingly light and fragmented. To the north of them there will be a lot of cloud and a few showers. In the south eastern corner some warm spells of sunshine are possible.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Sun 16th September

Hurricane Helene next week

On Monday wet weather affects the north west but elsewhere it should be dry and bright. Ex-hurricane Helene will be approaching from the southwest and that leads to warm air from southwest being funnelled towards the UK, so it should feel quite warm.

Through Monday night and into Tuesday Helene is expected to track northeastwards on a path that takes it close to Ireland and western Scotland. That brings the potential for a spell of very wet and windy weather in the north west. Winds also strengthen in areas further south and east but it is probably stays dry and becomes increasingly warm.

GEM, forecast pressure and 850hPa temperatures, 16:00 BST Mon 17th September

Through the rest of the week the weather looks quite changeable. Wet and windy spells continue in the north west of the UK. At times they could spread southeastwards but in the southern half of the UK it should often be dry and bright.  

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Cooler conditions are shown in the short term. During the middle part of September there is quite a strong signal for a spell of warm and dry weather in the south but the north remains more changeable. View latest GEFS.