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Friday starts with a band of thundery showers in eastern England and there is some light rain in the west of the UK. This morning the showers in the east pull away northwards and sunny spells develop in central and eastern regions. Patchy rain continues in the west but elsewhere it should be mostly dry. Through the second half of the day thunderstorms and torrential downpours break out in eastern and possibly central England.

It will be exceptionally hot in eastern England with the highest temperatures probably in East Anglia where 37C (99F) may be reached. There is even a slim chance of the all time record of 38.5C (101F) which was set in August 2003 being challenged. Central and eastern Scotland have an unusually warm day too and temperatures may reach the upper 20Cs. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

GFS, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Fri 27th July

Forecast short cuts

The month ahead - July

Tonight the thunderstorms pull away northeastwards and drier conditions return. Later on a band of heavy rain pushes into Northern Ireland, Wales and south west England. It will be warm and muggy in central and eastern Britain.

All change please

Tomorrow heavy showery rain spreads northeastwards into Scotland. Brighter conditions follow on from the southwest but further showers are likely. Temperature will be a lot lower than today's with maximums close to 23C (73F) in the south east.   

Sunday starts dry in central and eastern regions but in the west it will be wet and windy. During the day heavy outbreaks of rain and strong winds spread eastwards. Gales are possible in places and in exposed north western coastal locations gusts of between 50mph and 60mph are a risk. It will be a massive contrast to recent days.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 20:00 BST Fri 27th July

High pressure returning next week?

Through Monday and Tuesday a ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the southwest. That should lead to a reasonable amount of fine weather in the southern half of the UK. The north remains more changeable and showery.

Through the rest of the week the southern half of the UK probably has a good deal of dry and warm weather. Northern areas may be more changeable as disturbances from the Atlantic continue to bring showers or longer periods of rain at times.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

All regions have wet weather at times during the first few days. Thereafter high pressure builds and it turns drier, particularly in the south. View latest GEFS.