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Monday starts with a band of showery rain in much of the north and west. Through the day the rain slowly pushes southeastwards, and although some heavy bursts could be mixed in, it will be fragmented. Cooler and fresher conditions follow into Scotland. Central and eastern England have hot sunny periods but isolated thundery showers could break out.

Temperatures range from 18C (64F) in the far north west to a very hot 30C (88F) in the south east and East Anglia. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Mon 16th July

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The month ahead - July 

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Tonight the remnants of the rain clear eastwards. Clear spells form but in the west there could be scattered showers. 

Tomorrow stays dry and bright in much of the country but showers are likely in places. It will be cooler than recently, especially in the south where maximum temperatures are expected to be close to 25C (77F). 

On Wednesday a ridge of high pressure builds from the southwest. Scattered showers continue to be a risk but it should be a mostly dry with with sunny spells. Temperatures again top out in the south in the mid 20Cs. 

DWD ICON, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Tue 17th July

Warming up again

Forecast details for the second half of the week are uncertain, however recent computer model runs have downplayed the likelihood of it turning more unsettled. Thursday and Friday may be mostly dry, sunny and warm in southern counties. In the north showery outbreaks of rain are expected to return and there is a chance of them pushing southwards on Friday.

At the moment it looks as though high pressure tries to build again from the southwest this weekend. That means it should become increasingly fine and warm, although showers are possible on Saturday. By Sunday temperatures could be reaching the upper 20Cs in the south. 

GFS, forecast pressure and rain, 16:00 BST Sat 21st July

Next week probably brings further fine and very warm spells to the south. In the north more changeable weather is expected. There is also a possibility of low pressure areas becoming slow moving to the west of the UK. If that happens plumes of hot from southern Europe and North Africa could bring very hot and humid conditions into the UK.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

The risk of wet weather increases early in the period. Temperatures remain above average for much of the time in the south but in the north they become close to the seasonal norm. View latest GEFS.