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Saturday starts murky and damp in the southern half of the UK but across the north it is brighter. Through the day patchy outbreaks of rain affect England and Wales but the chance of brighter spells increases, especially in the west and to the southeast of London. Northern Ireland and Scotland have sunny spells and heavy showers which could fall as snow over the mountains.

Temperatures disappoint for the time of year with maximum values this afternoon close to 8C (46F) in overcast areas but possibly as high as 13C (55F) in Kent and Essex. See the rain radar for the latest view.

KNMI HIRLAM 00z, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Sat 28th April

Tonight central and eastern England stay overcast and damp. In the north and west clear spells lead to the risk of frost.

Tomorrow scattered showers pepper the north and west but it should be mostly dry and bright. England and Wales have a good deal of dry weather too but cloud builds from the south. Through the afternoon wet and windy weather spreads into the south east and southern coastal counties.

Back to winter on Monday

On Monday heavy rain and strong winds are forecast for much of England and perhaps parts of Wales. Gales are possible in the east and some computer models are predicting gusts in excess of 50mph near the east coast. Localised flooding and surface water could lead to travel disruption.

It will be unusually cold for the time of year with temperatures in parts of southern and central Britain struggling to rise much above 5C (41F). That brings a risk of rain turning to wet snow in heavier bursts, particularity over higher ground to the west of London. The north west of the UK should be mostly dry and bright but there is some uncertainty about how far the wet weather will reach.

GFS 00z, forecast pressure and precipitation, 13:00 BST Mon 30th April

On Tuesday the worst of the wet and windy weather should gradually pull away northeastwards. During Wednesday another band of rain pushes down from the northwest but it progressively becomes lighter and patchier. Temperatures remain disappointing for early May but they should be several degrees higher than in recent days.

Warm up on the way?

During the second half of the week there are indications of a transition to warmer weather as high pressure begins to build. The details are very uncertain but some of the latest computer model runs are showing a very marked warm up as we head towards the Bank Holiday weekend. However low pressure could remain close to southern areas and if that happens there would be a risk of further spells of wet weather.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Changeable weather is shown throughout the 16 day period but the chance of drier spells increases from the middle of next week. After a chilly start upper air temperatures recover and become close to the 30 year average. View latest GEFS.