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Thursday begins damp and murky across much of the UK. Through the day it remains mostly overcast, although like yesterday there could be sunny spells near the south coast and in the north west. There will be drizzle at times and this afternoon outbreaks of rain could become more persistent in the north east.

Arpege 12z, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Thur 12th April

Temperatures struggle to about 8C (46F) in overcast areas but where the sun appears it will quickly warm-up. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight patchy spells of rain move westwards across central and northern areas. In the south it should be drier and a few clear spells could form later on.

Tomorrow wet weather continues to be a risk in the north. In southern and central regions there is a better chance of cloud breaks leading to some pleasant sunshine, but hefty showers could break out.

Mixed but warmer weekend

The changeable theme continues this weekend. On Saturday warm sunny spells are possible but scattered showers are likely in southern and central regions. The north east probably remains overcast and damp.

Sunday is expected to be dry and warm in the east. In Northern Ireland and western Britain outbreaks of rain develop in the morning and steadily push into central regions through the afternoon.

GFS 00z, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Sun 15th April

High pressure builds next week

Computer models continue to show a dry and warm spell of weather next week. High pressure is expected to build over continental Europe and block the eastwards flow of Atlantic weather fronts. That allows very warm air to push northwards from southern Europe towards the UK. 

The GFS 00z chart below is for 16:00 BST, Wednesday 18th April. It shows temperatures above 21C (70F) in much of western Europe. In the UK maximum values of between 23C (73F) and 25C (77F) are forecast from Tuesday to Friday.

GFS 00z, forecast 850hPa temperatures and surface pressure, 16:00 BST Wed 18th April

Although most computer models agree about the transition to warm and settled weather early next week there is more uncertainty beyond that. The fine and summery conditions may last into the weekend a breakdown is possible.

The GFS 00z goes on to show areas of low pressure deepening to the southwest and wet weather returning by Saturday 21st April, as shown on the chart below. However other computer models keep the fine spell in place for longer. At this stage it is too early to be confident about which way things will go.

GFS 00z, forecast 850hPa temperatures and surface pressure, 07:00 BST Sat 21st April

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Warmer and drier conditions develop early next week. After April 19th temperatures begin to trend downwards and the chance of changeable weather returning increases. View latest GEFS.