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Saturday begins with outbreaks of rain in much of England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland are mostly dry and chilly but there are showers in the north west.

Through the day not much changes. Rain continues in the southern half of the UK but it becomes patchier this afternoon. In Scotland and Northern Ireland showers develop more widely but there will be a good deal of dry and sunny spells.

Arpege 00z, forecast precipitation, 15:00 GMT Sat 24th March

Maximum temperatures range from 7C (45F) and 10C (50F). See the recently upgraded rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight the rain in southern and central regions gradually fades away. Showers continue in the north west and in the north clear spells could lead to a frost.

Tomorrow starts overcast in the south and south east but it will be brighter elsewhere. During the day clearer skies push southeastwards and in the sunshine it feels quite pleasant. Scattered showers are possible, especially in the north west.

Arpege 00z, forecast cloud cover, 15:00 GMT Sun 25th March

Early next week

Monday begins dry but during the afternoon outbreaks of rain spread into the west. Overnight and through Tuesday the rain pushes eastwards and over high ground in Scotland it turns to snow.

By Wednesday a rather cold and showery air stream is expected to be covering all of the UK. In the north and west showers turn wintry, and over northern hills there could be significant snowfall.

The run up to Easter

Developments through the second half of the week are uncertain. In general terms areas of low pressure are likely to bring unsettled conditions. Some computer models show the low pressure areas sinking southwards which would lead to colder air from the north east moving down across the UK.

An alternative scenario is that the low pressure stays centred over the UK. That would bring cool and wet weather for many during the early part of the Easter period with the coldest conditions in the north. During the last 24 hours an increasing number of computer model runs have shown this.

This morning's ECM 00z run shows cold upper level air over central and northern parts of the UK by Good Friday. In the south and south west the air mass is less cold but still chilly for the time of year. This pattern would bring the risk of snow to northern and possibly central areas.

ECM 00z, surface pressure and 850hPa temperatures, 00:00 GMT Thu 29th March

Ensemble models which are used to identify the likelihood of different outcomes suggest below average temperatures and unsettled conditions are highly probable for much of the Easter period. The uncertainty increasingly focuses on whether the cold upper level air and associated risk of snow will push into southern counties or remain confined to the north.

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Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

After a mildish start upper level air temperatures dip to just below the 30 year average for a few days. Next week a wide range of outcomes is shown but colder than average conditions are likely during Easter and the early part of April. View latest GEFS.