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Sunday begins with a widespread frost. The rest of the day brings a lot of fine weather but in eastern counties there could be a few light wintry showers.

It will be cold with temperatures ranging from 3C (37F) in the east to 6C (42F) in western parts of the UK this afternoon. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight a sharp frost returns and it remains dry in the west. In eastern areas snow showers develop and in places they lead to accumulations by the morning.

Bitterly cold weather

Tomorrow a bitterly cold easterly flow with air originating from Siberia spreads westwards across all of the UK. The west has a mostly dry day with sunny spells. In the east snow showers develop and they are likely to become heavy at times and push into central regions. Temperatures hover close to 0C (32F) and a keen wind adds to the chill.

During Tuesday and Wednesday the freeze intensifies. Snow showers become widespread and heavy with significant disruption resulting in parts of the UK. The showery nature of the snow means local conditions will vary significantly but computer models show the biggest accumulations generally in central and and eastern Britain.

The chart below from this morning's DWD ICON computer model run is for 6pm on Tuesday 27th February. It shows the risk of snow showers in much of the UK.

DWD ICON 00z, precipitation type, 18:00 GMT Tue 27th Feb

Daytime temperatures won't rise much above 0C (32F) in much of the country but the midday sun is strengthening rapidly at this time of the year so there will be some thaw of lying snow when the clouds clear.

Blizzards pushing up from the south?

Freezing conditions continue on Thursday with further heavy snow showers in central and northern regions. In the south thicker cloud and more persistent outbreaks of snow could develop as low pressure approaches from the southwest.

Forecast confidence for the second half of Thursday and beyond is low. Computer models show the risk of blizzard conditions spreading northwards during Thursday night and through Friday. In southern counties the snow could turn back to rain as a milder air mass returns from the south. 

Less cold by the weekend?

By the weekend a very messy picture develops but most computer models show the cold block being pushed northwards. Temperatures could still be well below the average due to low level cold air being difficult to shift, but the warm up aloft would mean precipitation increasingly falls as rain rather than sleet or snow in the southern half of the UK.

The chart below from this morning's ECM 00z run shows milder upper level air covering the southern half of the UK by Sunday.  

Summary

1) Exceptionally cold will affect all of the UK during the first few days of the week.

2) Snow showers become increasingly widespread with disruptive accumulations in places.

3) During the second half of the week an area of low pressure is expected to push up from the southwest. That brings the likelihood of heavy snow or blizzards but also the prospect of milder air slowly spreading northwards during Friday and the weekend.

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the rest of February and the first half of March could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That raises the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts [NEW]

Temperature anomalies [NEW]

DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

EUMETSAT high resolution satellite images [NEW]

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

By the start of next week it turns very cold and the risk of snow increases. Through the first week of March uncertainty grows with an increasing number of runs showing it turning milder. View latest GEFS.