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Wednesday begins with a frost in northern and southern counties but cloudier skies have held up temperatures in central regions. The rest of the day brings a lot of dry and bright weather but scattered showers are likely in the eastern half of England. 

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) to 7C (45F) this afternoon. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight clear spells lead to quite a widespread frost. In places cloudier skies again keep it less cold but it will stay dry.

Tomorrow it's a similar picture for most but thicker cloud in the north west could bring some light spells of rain. Little changes on Friday and Saturday but a strengthening easterly wind in southern and central areas makes it feel cold.

Siberian freeze on the way?

By Sunday bitterly cold air over continental Europe will be pushing westwards towards the UK as a "Beast from the East" weather pattern begins to take shape. There is uncertainty about whether the core of the cold air mass will push across the UK or track further south across France and pay us a glancing blow instead.

By Monday most computer model simulations show the UK under very cold air and some lock in the cold pattern for a lengthy period. However a growing number of model runs are showing high pressure quickly transferring from Scandinavia to the Greenland area. That would lead to a slightly less cold northerly flow replacing the easterly one after two or three days. 

At this stage it is possible to say:

1) Very cold weather is expected during the first half of next week

2) There is a risk of snow but pinpointing where and how much will fall is impossible at this stage

3) During the second half of the week subtle changes are likely and they may lead to an increasing risk of sleet and snow in parts of the UK but it could also turn slightly less cold.

The chart below is from this morning's ECMWF medium range computer model run and is for Thursday 1st March. It shows the coldest air being pushed to the south of the UK into France and southern Europe. High pressure has transferred from Scandinavia to Greenland and less cold air from the north is moving down across the UK. It is just one possible scenario and it may remain cold enough for snow in much of the UK. Other computer model runs keep the UK under that exceptionally cold continental air mass throughout the week.

ECMWF 00z, 850hPA temperature and surface pressure, 00:00 GMT Tue 27th Feb

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the rest of February and the first half of March could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That raises the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts [NEW]

Temperature anomalies [NEW]

DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

EUMETSAT high resolution satellite images [NEW]

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A good deal of dry weather is shown in the short term. By the end of the month a big spread of solutions is on offer and it may turn very cold. View latest GEFS.