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Tuesday begins with outbreaks of rain in central and eastern regions but the west is mostly dry. Through the rest of the day patchy rain affects East Anglia as well as in Kent and Essex. Elsewhere it stays mostly dry and sunny spells develop.

Temperatures range from 7C (45F) to 10C (50F). See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight the cloudy and damp conditions in the south east push west. In the northern half of the UK clear spells lead to quite a widespread frost.

Tomorrow most of the country has a dry and bright day but in central and eastern a scattering of light showers is expected. Temperatures will be similar to today's. Thursday, Friday and Saturday bring similar conditions but a strengthening easterly wind in southern and central areas makes it feel cold.

Siberian freeze on the way?

By Sunday bitterly cold air over continental Europe is likely to be pushing westwards towards the UK as a "Beast from the East" weather pattern begins to take shape. Most computer models show the deep cold reaching the UK but there is uncertainty about the timing.

Recent runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) show the cold pushing in from the east on Sunday, but the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model holds it back until Monday. Computer models are showing similarities with the January 1987 and February 1991 freezes and it is not out of the question that records could be broken.

ECMWF 00z, 850hPA temperature and surface pressure, 00:00 GMT Tue 27th Feb

If the pool of deep cold air reaches the UK and stays with us for at least several days as is expected the probability of widespread and disruptive snow will be high. At this stage it is impossible quantify the risk because disturbances in the flow are often picked up by computer models at short range. In general terms the pattern suggests heavy snow is initially most likely in the south and east.  

Ice days ahead

Although the sun is rapidly strengthening at this time of the year there is the possibility of daytime temperatures early next week remaining below 0C (32F) in large parts of the UK. The term "ice day" is used when that happens.

Alternative scenarios

At the present time the very cold and wintry outlook is considered the most likely scenario but alternative ones remain possible. The core of the cold pool over the continent could slide away southeastwards and only pay the UK a glancing blow. It's also possible that small scale disturbances could deepen and mix out the coldest air leading to more of a wintry mix.

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the rest of February and the first half of March could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That raises the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts [NEW]

Temperature anomalies [NEW]

DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

EUMETSAT high resolution satellite images [NEW]

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A good deal of dry weather is shown in the short term. By the end of the month a big spread of solutions is on offer and it may turn very cold. View latest GEFS.