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Saturday begins with a band cloud and patchy rain straddled across Wales and northern England. Through the day cloudier skies push southeastwards into southern counties but the rain fades away. Behind it sunny spells develop but there will be wintry showers in Scotland with some heavy ones in the west.

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) in the north to 10C (50F) in the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight wet weather pushes into the south west of the UK. Elsewhere clear periods lead to a frost early on but cloud builds from the west later.

Tomorrow morning drizzly conditions are likely in southern and central areas. During the afternoon more persistent and heavy spells of rain push into the north and west. It will be quite mild in the south but the north remains chilly.

Next week's easterly on or off?

Forecast confidence for next week continues to be low. A very cold block of air will be pushing westwards across continental Europe but there is uncertainty about when and whether it will reach the UK. Some recent computer model runs have shown a bitterly cold easterly flow becoming established by next Wednesday. However most show high pressure remaining close to the UK with chilly but not very cold air filtering in off the continent.

By the end of February the chance of a "Beast from the East" weather pattern feeding that very cold air into the UK increases but it is not at all certain. If the full brunt of the cold air mass reaches the UK it would lead to an exceptionally cold start to the meteorological spring and even in the south temperatures would struggle to rise above 0C (32F) during the first few days of March.   

Today's GFS 00z operational run shows exceptionally cold air reaching the UK by February 28th. The chart below shows forecast temperatures at about 1500m above sea level. Values of -15C are truly exceptional by the UK's standards and would lead to ice days even in early March.

GFS 00z , 850hPa temperatures, 12pm Wed 28th Feb

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the rest of February and the first half of March could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That increases the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts [NEW]

Temperature anomalies [NEW]

DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

EUMETSAT high resolution satellite images [NEW]

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A good deal of dry weather is shown in the short term. By the end of the month a big spread of solutions is on offer and it may turn very cold. View latest GEFS.