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Friday begins starts with wintry showers in the north west but elsewhere it is mostly dry and chilly. This morning sunny spells develop but cloud thickens in the west and through the afternoon it pushes eastwards. Showers continue in the north west and during the second half of the day more prolonged spells of rain extend across Northern Ireland and into western Scotland.

Temperatures range from 4C (39F) in the north to 9C (48F) in the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight wet weather moves southeastwards reaching Wales and northern England by the morning. Over high ground there is likely to be some snow. Clearer skies follow into the north west but wintry showers pop up. Southern and southeastern England remain mostly dry.

Tomorrow morning the band of showery rain pushes southeastwards but it weakens and fades away. The afternoon should be mostly dry apart from in the north west where wintry showers continue. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average.

DWD ICON 00z, precipitation type, 9am, Sat 16th Feb

On Sunday morning patchy outbreaks of rain are expected in southern and central areas. In the afternoon more persistent and heavy spells of rain push into much of the north and west. It will be quite mild.

Easterly on hold?

During the first half of week high pressure builds northwards across the UK. That brings the likelihood of chilly nights but the air source won't be cold and the days should be quite mild. By the second half of the week uncertainty increases. A cold easterly flow remains a possibility but most of the latest guidance from computer models suggests high pressure will decline southwards and allow an Atlantic flow to return to the northern half of the UK. In general it looks like remaining quite mild.

Beyond that things become very uncertain. The signal for a "Beast from the East" weather pattern has weakened but it is too early to rule out the possibility.  

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the next couple of weeks could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That increases the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Rain and precipitation type radar

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A good deal of dry weather is shown in the short term. By the end of the month a big spread of solutions is on offer and it may turn very cold. View latest GEFS.