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Tuesday is off to a bitterly cold start with a widespread frost and temperatures down to -11C (12F) in Pershore, Worcestershire. This morning it remains dry and bright in central and eastern areas but in the west cloud builds. Outbreaks of rain spread into Northern Ireland and during the afternoon they extend into western Britain. In the north the rain is likely to be preceded by a period of snow and over high ground significant accumulations are possible. The east should remain dry but it will become cloudier.

The Meteo France Arpege forecast chart shows the expected position of rain, sleet and snow at 18:00 GMT today.

Meteo France Arpege 00z, 12th Dec, precipitation type 18:00 GMT Tue 12th Dec

Maximum temperatures struggle to climb above 1C (32F) in much of the country but in the south west and Northern Ireland it becomes milder.

Tonight outbreaks of rain spread southeastwards. Clearer conditions follow on but in western areas heavy showers develop and over high ground in Scotland they turn wintry. A touch of frost is possible but it will generally be less cold than recent nights.

Forecast tools: Check the latest computer model predictions and rain radar using the links below:

Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

Changeable and chilly

Tomorrow all regions have a mix of showers and bright intervals. The showers are expected to become heavy and persistent with snow over high ground in the north. The north has a chilly day but temperatures across the south will be closer to the average than for some time.

During Thursday and Friday colder air spreads southwards again and showers in the north and west become increasingly wintry. Inland southern and central areas have a good deal of dry and bright although a few wintry showers are possible.  Nighttime frosts develop widely.

Through the weekend it remains quite cold. Wintry showers continue in the north and around coastal counties.

All change next week

Next week a milder weather is forecast to develop. High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north allow a west or southwesterly flow to become established across the UK. That is a typical pattern in our part of the world and it could last for a some time.

The ECM forecast chart below shows high pressure centred to the south of the UK next Tuesday. That allows a mild southwesterly flow to push northeastwards across the UK.

ECM 00z, 12th Dec, pressure and 500hPa heights, 00:00 GMT Tue 19th Dec

Berkhamsted snow gallery

Sunday 10th December brought the heaviest fall of snow to much of southern and central Britain for a number of years. TWO is based just outside London in a Chiltern market town called Berkhamsted. About 14cm of snow fell in our locality and you can see some pictures of it in the Berkhamsted snow gallery. 

A colder winter on the way?

The TWO winter forecast has been issued and suggests a colder and drier than average season. This year it has been particularly difficult to reach a conclusion. Buzz looks at Sunday's snow risk. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Cold conditions develop in the short term. Next week rather cold and changeable weather is favoured but by the second half of the month the number an increasing number of runs show it becoming milder. View latest GEFS.