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Wednesday is off to a dry and mild start in much of the UK but there is some patchy rain in the west. Through the day winds strengthen and more persistent spells of rain push into Northern Ireland and western Britain. Eastern areas remain dry but there will be a good deal of cloud. 

Maximum temperatures range from 9C (48F) to 12C (54F). See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight the area of wet and windy weather steadily spreads southeastwards. In the north it turns colder and clearer but the south stays mild.

Storm Caroline tomorrow

Tomorrow Storm Caroline brings storm force winds to northern Scotland with gusts probably exceeding 80mph in exposed locations. There will be heavy snow showers too and the likelihood of blizzard conditions. During the morning wet and windy weather affects southern England but it clears away from the south eastern corner in the afternoon. Elsewhere sunny spells develop but wintry showers become widespread in the north and west. 

The Arpege chart shows windy weather across the UK tomorrow morning with gusts exceeding 80mph in the far north. 

Arpege 00z, 06th Dec, wind gusts 10:00 GMT, Thu 7th Dec

Friday and the weekend

Friday and Saturday will be cold with snow showers in northern and coastal regions. The showers may push inland at times and accumulations of snow at low levels are possible.

During Sunday a small area of low pressure pushes southeastwards across the UK and brings a period of rain, sleet and snow. Forecast details are uncertain but most of the snow is likely to be north of the M4 corridor with much of southern England having rain. There is the potential for the snow to cause travel disruption.

The GFS precipitation chart shows a mix of rain and snow at midday on Sunday but it is too early to be confident about how accurate this will be.

GFS 00z, 6th Dec, precipitation type 12:00 GMT Sat 9th Dec

Cold and changeable

Next week a continuation of the cold theme is the favoured outcome. Disturbances move in from the Atlantic and bring a risk of rain, sleet and snow at times. Embedded milder air means their exact track will be crucial to determining the weather that different parts of the UK experiences. In general terms milder air is more likely to return to southern and central areas increasing the risk of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

As we approach Christmas there are tentative indications of a change. Forecast confidence is low but medium range computer models are tentatively hinting at a more mobile picture developing in the Atlantic. That would lead to milder and more unsettled weather in the UK but it is still a long way off.

A colder winter on the way?

The TWO winter forecast has been issued and suggests a colder and drier than average season. This year it has been particularly difficult to reach a conclusion. Buzz looks at the medium term. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Cold conditions develop in the short term. Next week rather cold and changeable weather is favoured but by the second half of the month the number an increasing number of runs show it becoming milder. View latest GEFS.