Frozen In Time

Archived articles which have appeared on our homepage since May 7th 2014.

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Cold week but uncertain mid term

[Updated 07:10 27/11/2017]

Snow scene

A cold northerly air stream becomes established over the UK in the next 24 hours and remains in place through the working week. By the weekend less cold air gradually returns and beyond that uncertainty grows.

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Monday is off to a wet and windy start in southern areas but in the north clearer and showery conditions have returned. This morning the rain in the south eases off but it remains cloudy. The north has a mix of sunshine and showers which increasingly turn to snow over high ground. Through the day the clearer and colder air in the north steadily pushes southwards to reach all areas by the evening. 

Temperatures range from 4C (39F) in Scotland to a mild 11C (52F) in the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight under clearing skies it becomes cold with quite a widespread frost. Wintry showers continue in the north.

Tomorrow all regions have a cold and bright day but around coastal counties and in the north wintry showers develop. Over high ground accumulations of snow are possible.

Increasing risk of wintry showers

During the rest of the working week the UK will be sitting under a cold northerly flow with high pressure to the west blocking the flow of Atlantic weather systems. Wintry showers could affect all regions but most of them are likely to be in coastal counties and the north on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday the risk of snow showers could spread further inland and southwards.

The Arpege chart below shows the majority of showers near the east coast on Thursday afternoon but more of a northeasterly component to the wind direction leads to some of them spreading inland.

Arpege precipitation type forecast

Meteo France Arpege 00z, 27th November, Wind gusts for 15:00GMT, Thu 30th November

Milder at the weekend

By the weekend high pressure becomes centred slightly farther southeast in the Atlantic. That leads to less cold air rolling over the top of it and pushing down across the UK. Weather fronts also bring the risk of patchy rain and that may be preceded by a little snow over high ground.

The ECM pressure and 850hPa chart for Sunday 3rd December below shows milder air filtering down across the UK.

ECM 00z pressure and 850hPa chart

ECM 00z, 27th November, MSLP and 850hPa temperatures for 20:00 GMT, Sun 3 December

More changeable next week

The longer term outlook is uncertain. Quite a blocked picture is expected to remain over the North Atlantic although an increasing number of computer models runs are trending towards a wetter and less cold outlook.

TWO news

Buzz looks at the medium term. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Colder conditions are shown returning this week. By the weekend it turns less cold and in the longer term there are signs of more changeable conditions. View latest GEFS.



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