UK Seasonal Outlook

First half

A transition to very warm or hot weather takes place during the first few days of the month. Settled conditions are likely to last for a significant amount of time, particularly in the south and east. However, a transition to a more unsettled pattern probably starts to take place during the second week. By the end of the period all regions could see showers or longer outbreaks of rain, with the wettest spells in the west. Temperatures dip, but they remain above the average.

Second half

A mixed bag is expected. Warm and dry spells continue to be possible, but wet and windy periods are more likely than during the first half of the month. Temperatures probably trend close to or a little above the norm.

October

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

The weather turns progressively more unsettled, with wet and windy spells affecting all parts of the country. Despite that, more settled intervals remain likely, especially in the south and east. Temperatures in the south should often be above average, but in the north they are expected to be closer to the norm.

Second half

The period is forecast to be characterised by unsettled and windy conditions. Some heavy spells of rain push across the country, although they should be interspersed with brighter and showery conditions. Temperatures in the south are forecast to be close to average, but the north it may be rather cool at times.

November

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Unsettled weather probably dominates, with significant rainfall across most of the country. It could also become very windy at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average when taken over the period as a whole.

Second half

The emphasis continues to be on unsettled weather. Therefore, the chance of wet and windy conditions is increased relative to the norm. Rain totals are expected to be the highest in the west, but significant amounts are likely in all regions. Temperatures generally remain close to the seasonal average in the southern half of the UK. In the north the possibility of colder incursions increases, and as is typically the case at this time of the year, the chance of snow over high ground in the north starts to increase markedly. However, the unsettled pattern suggests that the risk of frost will be lower than the norm, especially in southern and central regions.