UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Spring 2021: Warmer and slightly drier than average

Forecast Issued 01/03/2021

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A mixed spring is forecast but on balance a warmer and slightly drier than average season is expected. The highest likelihood of colder conditions relative to the average is considered to be early in the three month period. 


Cold at times in March but above the 30 year norm over the three month period.


Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly below the 30 year average, but there is thought to be an increased chance of wet conditions in the south towards the end of the season.



Close to or slightly below average.


Slightly below average.

First half

The period starts settled but showery spells of rain develop across southern and possibly central regions during the middle part of the first week. Temperatures also begin to drop in the north and the colder air then spreads southwards across all of the UK. Sleet or snow showers are likely, particularly in the east. However, it soon becomes dry in all regions but very cold nights are possible for a time. During the second week a transition to unsettled weather takes place. All regions have showers or longer spells of rain and it may be cold enough for sleet or snow in central and northern areas, particularly over high ground.

Second half

Close to average temperatures are forecast when taken over the period as a whole and in the south during drier spells it may feel quite warm. Mixed weather is expected, with some unsettled spells pushing showers or longer spells of rain across the whole of the country. Despite that drier periods are likely too, particularly later on.





Slightly above average.


Close to or slightly below average.

First half

Often mixed weather with heavy showers or more persistent outbreaks of rain is expected. Temperatures varying significantly with colder and milder than average spells. It may be cold enough at times for showers to turn wintry in the north with sleet or snow over higher ground. Occasional overnight frost is also likely.

Second half

Changeable conditions are favoured but with temperatures over the period as a whole slightly above the seasonal average. As the month progresses there may be an increasing chance of drier and warmer spells of weather developing, particularly in southern and central regions.



Above average.


Below average in the north but possibly above average in parts of the south.

First half

The first half of the month is expected to bring warmer than average conditions, with a good deal of dry and increasingly sunny weather. Northern areas may well be less settled and cooler at times with showers or longer spells of rain.

Second half

The second half of the month should see temperatures often continuing above average. There may be a tendency for it to turn less settled with thundery spells of rain for a time, particularly in southern and central regions.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.


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