UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn: Unsettled. Stormy at times.

Forecast Issued 31/08/2017

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Mixed early on but often unsettled during October and November with the risk of stormy spells. Quite mild but colder incursions in the north could spread southwards late in the season.

Temperature

Temperatures are expected to be slightly above the long term average over the three month period.

Precipitation

Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be above average.

September

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average. Wettest in the north west and driest in the south east.

First half

Quite changeable weather is expected but a north west to south east split is likely. In the south and south east there should be quite a lot of dry weather through the period, although some spells of rain are likely. The north, and particularly the north west, are likely to see more frequent spells of wet and windy weather. Temperatures close to average in the north but quite warm at times in the south east.

Second half

Rather changeable weather is likely to develop with unsettled spells pushing farther farther south at times. The driest and warmest conditions are still expected in the south with the north seeing the coolest and wettest weather. It could become very windy on occasion, particularly in the north west. Overall this period’s temperatures are expected to be close to average in the north and slightly above average in the south.

 

 

October

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Unsettled weather is predicted, bringing showers and longer spells of rain to all of the UK. Windy on occasion, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells are likely to be in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but around average in the north. 

Second half

Often unsettled and windy or possibly stormy. Bands of heavy rain probably push across the country with brighter and showery spells in between. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

November

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, frequently bringing showers or longer spells of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average.

Second half

The theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Colder spells in northern regions could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow, especially over higher ground. At times colder weather could spread southwards. Temperatures are forecast to be close to average over the period as a whole in the south but possibly slightly below average in the north.

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