UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2021: Best early and late

Forecast Issued 01/06/2021

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

The most settled periods are expected to be in June and August, with July being more mixed. Taking temperatures and rainfall into account, the summer is forecast to be slightly better than average. 

Temperature

Above the 30 year norm over the three month period.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly below the average.

June

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Close to or slightly below average.

First half

After a warm and dry start showery outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms push northwards across the UK. Drier conditions quickly return, but temperatures dip a little. Through the rest of the period a good deal of fine weather is likely. However, showers or longer spells of rain remain a risk, particularly but not only in the west and north west. Temperatures should often be above the seasonal average.

Second half

A spell of fine and settled conditions with above average temperatures is expected. It could become very warm in southern and central parts, but perhaps turning thundery. In the west and north west temperatures may be pegged back and there is a growing risk of more unsettled and cooler periods of weather. At times they could extend southeastwards.

 



 

July

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Mixed weather for much of the period, although the emphasis early on may be on drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures on the whole are favoured to be close to the seasonal average.

Second half

Increasingly unsettled with the likelihood of heavy showery outbreaks of rain. However, some drier and warmer spells are still likely. Although temperatures are forecast to be close to the seasonal average overall, significant variations are possible.

August

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly below average.

First half

Mixed with showers or longer periods of rain but also warm and fine spells. The driest weather will probably be in the south and east, but a heightened risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms means local variations could be large. Temperatures should be above average when aggregated over the period as a whole.

Second half

The chance of settled and very warm periods increases. Showery spells of rain are still probable, particularly in the north and west.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

SHARE THIS

Other forecasts

Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.

You may be interested in

© TheWeatherOutlook - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com


LATEST NEWS

Heavy showers return today

NEWSLETTER

Get weather updates by email

Register now

TODAY'S WEATHER

7 day charts

RECENT FEATURES

Autumn 2021 UK weather

UKV charts and data

Summer 2021 weather forecast

Summer 2021 Update 2

Summer 2021 weather