The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

May weather: Often changeable

Forecast issued 02/05/2021


Slightly below average.


Above average.

1/5 to 7/5

Quite unsettled and chilly.

The first couple of days bring sunny spells and showers. The nights will be cold with widespread ground frost. During the middle of the week it becomes very wet and windy, with gales in parts of the UK. Showery conditions follow and it will be cold enough for sleet or snow over high ground in the north. Later on it may become drier in the southern half of the UK for a time, but there is a risk of rain spreading into the south of England. Temperatures generally below the seasonal average.

8/5 to 14/5

Changeable. [Forecast confidence is low to moderate]

All regions can expect showers or longer spells of rain, particularly during the first few days. In the north there is an ongoing possibility of nighttime frosts and the showers could be wintry over the mountains. In the south the chance of warmer and drier interludes increases. However, the general picture remains a mixed one and prolonged dry periods are not expected.

15/5 to 31/5

Changeable. [Forecast confidence is very low]

Early on a drier and more settled spell may develop for several days. In the south it could become quite warm. Later on a transition back to more changeable weather is favoured. Rain amounts and temperatures become close to the norm for the second half of May. Therefore, some warm or even very warm days are possible. However, there isn't a signal for more generally settled conditions. 

Accompanying video



Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.


Other forecasts

Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.

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