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Offline Caz  
#141 Posted : 20 January 2013 12:47:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: western100 Go to Quoted Post


below 3 or 2 i doubt currently due to the forecast showing cloud over large parts all week. If skies cleared for some time you would record probably close to record breaking figures with such depth of snow across places. 


But you would need a few -15+ in a row this week for a cold cet. Looks like coming in just under average but not a representation of how potent january will have been. 50% of the month well below, matching the first 50% with mildness. 



I'm not sure how you work that out.  We could easily get below 2c this month.  We only need CET's of 0c to the end of the month for it to come in at 2.38c  -  Current CET (4.1) multiplied by days already gone (18) divided by number of days in the month (31).


CET now down to 4.1c to 18th


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html



The big question though Caz is if the cold spell holds or intensifies - Or if it breaks down just before the end of the month.


Many forecast models are now indicating a breakdown.



Yes, that's true HT, though some are saying -10 this week if skies clear, so if that happens it will offset any milder days later in the month. I don't think the models know what to make of it and I'm quite enjoying this nowcast situation. 


I was really responding to Western saying we'd need a few -15,s this week and wondered how he'd worked that out. 


Anyway, CET now down to 3.8c to 19th Jan


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


[edit]  I see Gav has already posted today's CET.  That'll teach me to go off and make a cuppa, mid post!    Yes, Gav, it is a pretty impressive crash.  Just goes to show how CET's alone don't show the true pattern of the month.

Edited by user 20 January 2013 12:51:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline KevBrads1  
#142 Posted : 20 January 2013 13:09:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post
Hmmm,it has got me thinking, we not had a cold middle third of January. ie 11th-20th January period for sometime. Could turn out the coldest such period for some years.

11th-19th January 2013: 0.5C
11th-20th January 2001: 1.0C
11th-20th January 1987: -2.9C



It looks like the coldest middle third to a January since 1987. It shows how rare a cold middle third of a January has been in the last 25 years. In 1997, 2009 and 2010, it was the first part of the month. In 1992 and 1996, it was the last third of the month.

Edited by user 20 January 2013 13:12:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified


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Offline Rob K  
#143 Posted : 20 January 2013 13:39:05(UTC)
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Countryfile suggesting some clearer skies under HP mid week so maybe some colder minima to come.
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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#144 Posted : 20 January 2013 14:01:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post


We go sub 4c for the first time this month;


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


3.8


Must say this has been one of the most impressive CET crashes for a long time. Maybe up there with November 2005?



I thought it was November 2010 with a massive CET crash as that incredible cold spell got going and continued for almost all the following December.


 

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Online Sussex snow magnet  
#145 Posted : 20 January 2013 15:36:10(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post
Hmmm,it has got me thinking, we not had a cold middle third of January. ie 11th-20th January period for sometime. Could turn out the coldest such period for some years. 11th-19th January 2013: 0.5C 11th-20th January 2001: 1.0C 11th-20th January 1987: -2.9C
It looks like the coldest middle third to a January since 1987. It shows how rare a cold middle third of a January has been in the last 25 years. In 1997, 2009 and 2010, it was the first part of the month. In 1992 and 1996, it was the last third of the month.


Looks like for the third week stats ie;15th to 21st this week could potentially surpass 1987 and be colder.(especially if GW is correct about the 16th and 17th being lower).

Edited by user 20 January 2013 15:38:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Gavin P  
#146 Posted : 20 January 2013 17:38:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post


We go sub 4c for the first time this month;


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


3.8


Must say this has been one of the most impressive CET crashes for a long time. Maybe up there with November 2005?



I thought it was November 2010 with a massive CET crash as that incredible cold spell got going and continued for almost all the following December.


 



Yes. November 2010 was impressive as well.

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Offline Rob K  
#147 Posted : 21 January 2013 12:56:46(UTC)
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Only 0.1C trimmed off yesterday, apparently.

3.7C to the 20th.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Gavin P  
#148 Posted : 21 January 2013 13:48:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Only 0.1C trimmed off yesterday, apparently.

3.7C to the 20th.



Wonder if that might be subject to a bit of a downwards revision at the end of the month?

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Offline Darren S  
#149 Posted : 21 January 2013 15:05:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Only 0.1C trimmed off yesterday, apparently.

3.7C to the 20th.



Wonder if that might be subject to a bit of a downwards revision at the end of the month?



Yesterday's CET was -0.3C provisionally, brining the CET to 3.65C to the 20th. That might be a few tenths of a degree higher than expected, but had it been, say -0.8C, that would have only done enough to tip it over to 3.6C (to 1 dp).

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Winter 2019/20: Snow Days: 2; Snow Cover Days: 0; Current Depth: 0cm; Max Depth: 0cm; Total Snow: 0cm
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Brummie Snowman  
#150 Posted : 21 January 2013 20:21:29(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post


We go sub 4c for the first time this month;


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


3.8


Must say this has been one of the most impressive CET crashes for a long time. Maybe up there with November 2005?



Weren't we looking odds on for the record Autumn CET in mid November 2005 before the CET crashed?


Didn't have to wait long to get another chance to break the record though, just one year later.

Offline Rob K  
#151 Posted : 22 January 2013 12:18:16(UTC)
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Rothamsted, one of the official CET stations, got down to -10.4C last night :)
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Offline Stormchaser  
#152 Posted : 22 January 2013 13:09:28(UTC)
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As it now looks like January's slide could feature a highly dangerous ramp at the end, I'm hoping it dips mighty low during the next 3-4 days... so far this cold spell the minimums have been rather unimpressive - if only I could have forseen just how much cloud there would be

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#153 Posted : 22 January 2013 15:23:51(UTC)
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Offline Rob K  
#154 Posted : 23 January 2013 13:43:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


And now down to 3.3C.


Should get below 3C by the weekend, then a bit of a rise at the end of the month. Should be a below average month though.

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Online Sussex snow magnet  
#155 Posted : 23 January 2013 19:45:56(UTC)
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The provisional CET is showing 6 consecutive days of CET between zero and minus 1,very unusual for a cold spell I would think to have such a steady below Zero figure for this many days without a couple of days with much lower CET value's.

Offline Rob K  
#156 Posted : 24 January 2013 16:01:02(UTC)
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The figure still hasn't been updated today.
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Offline Global Warming  
#157 Posted : 24 January 2013 21:48:33(UTC)
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The CET rose above zero today for the first time since the 15th. 8 consecutive below zero days which is the longest sequence since December 2010. However, there have been very few really cold days because of the amount of cloud at night.


Tomorrow could see another below zero day as it will be cold tonight in many areas. But the final CET for tomorrow will depend how quickly it warms up early on Saturday morning as the maximum temperatures in the CET area may well occur close to 9am on Saturday morning.


My CET estimate up to today is 2.83C. I now expect the final figure at the end of the month to come in at 3.45C



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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#158 Posted : 25 January 2013 10:15:49(UTC)
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It was a significant cold spell for me with snow lying now for 11 consecutive days which is quite rare these days.


My lowest temperature was -9C


 

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Offline Surrey John  
#159 Posted : 25 January 2013 12:35:09(UTC)
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Looking back at the predictions on page 5 there are a huge number of people in with a good shout

CET now at 3.0c but expected to bounce back with the last few days of the month lilely to be 3 or 4c above average, based on the latest forecasts probably end up around 4.2c but its difficult to call with these large daily deviations from the mean
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Offline Rob K  
#160 Posted : 25 January 2013 13:26:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Surrey John Go to Quoted Post
Looking back at the predictions on page 5 there are a huge number of people in with a good shout

CET now at 3.0c but expected to bounce back with the last few days of the month lilely to be 3 or 4c above average, based on the latest forecasts probably end up around 4.2c but its difficult to call with these large daily deviations from the mean


With 3.0C to the 24th and another cold minimum last night, I don't think it will rise to anything like 4.2C by the end of the month. If the CET to the 25th stays unchanged at 3.0C then the last 6 days of the month would have to average 9.2C to get up that high!


 


I think it will stay comfortably under 4C, maybe around 3.7C?

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