A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.

All of the rest of the month would need to do so, but this week will, so it's possible

A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.

All of the rest of the month would need to do so, but this week will, so it's possible

My calculations used for the graphs above currently show a mean CET from the 13th to the 20th of 0.1C.

A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.

All of the rest of the month would need to do so, but this week will, so it's possible

My calculations used for the graphs above currently show a mean CET from the 13th to the 20th of 0.1C.

Surely it will be nothing like that high, with maxima between +2 and -1C and minima as low as -8C, at least until Saturday???

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A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.

All of the rest of the month would need to do so, but this week will, so it's possible

My calculations used for the graphs above currently show a mean CET from the 13th to the 20th of 0.1C.

Phew.

 

 

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6.2C to the 12th - almost half a degree off in one day

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

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5.8c to the 13th flying down needs to keep going for my CET guess to have a chance.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

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And 5.5 to the 14th - that's a 1.1 degree drop in 3 days 🙂

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A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.

 

Yeah, and....?

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5.8c to the 13th flying down needs to keep going for my CET guess to have a chance.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

I think it's going to fly down even faster, in which case you'll have gone too high.  In fact we all might have if today's MO comes off! 

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I'm definitely starting to think we have a fighting chance of ending up in the 2s... the 1s might be a bridge too far but looking at some of the models I wouldn't bet against it. Plenty of runs showing the odd -15C night in the Midlands which would give a welcome boost!

Imagine if we all went too high after a near 8C first week!

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Still flying down 5.2c now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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Still flying down 5.2c now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

And looks like many places struggling to go above zero today - much of central England -3C to -4C at midday including Pershore. No doubt they will "adjust" it so it's not quite as cold though.... 

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Think we might take a full degree off the CET today. Severely cold in the Midlands.

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Still flying down 5.2c now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

And looks like many places struggling to go above zero today - much of central England -3C to -4C at midday including Pershore. No doubt they will "adjust" it so it's not quite as cold though.... 

Actually, for once the CET station at Pershore Throckmorton (aka Vostok) isn't that much colder than anywhere else in the area! 

No doubt it'll be recording a good 5 or 6c lower than anywhere else in Worcestershire once we get some snow cover though ......

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Think we might take a full degree off the CET today. Severely cold in the Midlands.

Don't think that is really possible this far into the month!

 

5.2 x 15 = 78

4.2 x 16 = 67.2

 

So today would have to have a CET of -10.8C. I don't think that will happen. Wait till Monday (by which time the anomaly would have to be even bigger as we would be further through the month of course...) Remember that later in the month, each day has proportionally less impact on the total.

 

We could see a daily CET of -4 to -5C today but they never seem to come out that cold even when everywhere has ice days and -8C minima!

 

Assuming an extreme case of -5C then the CET would be down to (78-5)/16 = 4.6 by tomorrow.

Then the CET for tomorrow should also be very cold, before the snow on Friday and Saturday holds minima up... then early next week all bets are off if a cold clear ridge or col settles over deep snow...

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when judging a CET it is very hard to see large falls in the CET over a couple of days. The weather stations give the average but for example at my location and alititude, today it was -3 all day, however at work 10 miles away it was +1.7 degrees. Such large regional and local variations make it very false sometimes. 

There is a higher than average chance that this month will come in at around average. 

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when judging a CET it is very hard to see large falls in the CET over a couple of days. The weather stations give the average but for example at my location and alititude, today it was -3 all day, however at work 10 miles away it was +1.7 degrees. Such large regional and local variations make it very false sometimes. 

There is a higher than average chance that this month will come in at around average. 

The CET is only derived from 3 stations though, one of which is Pershore Throckmorton, so that's the one to watch.  And in cold weather it tends to be colder than anywhere else on the Midlands .....

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when judging a CET it is very hard to see large falls in the CET over a couple of days. The weather stations give the average but for example at my location and alititude, today it was -3 all day, however at work 10 miles away it was +1.7 degrees. Such large regional and local variations make it very false sometimes. 

There is a higher than average chance that this month will come in at around average. 

The CET is only derived from 3 stations though, one of which is Pershore Throckmorton, so that's the one to watch.  And in cold weather it tends to be colder than anywhere else on the Midlands .....

How many stations are there at Pershore?

A full half degree off in one day thanks to a well sub-zero CET yesterday.

Now 4.7 to the 16th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

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A full half degree off in one day thanks to a well sub-zero CET yesterday.

Now 4.7 to the 16th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

We could see it going down as much again today because yesterday was an ice day in a lot of places as well.

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