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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:05:43(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

We approach the end of another year (where does the time go!) so here is a new thread for your CET predictions for 2013. Remeber there are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2013 as a whole.

A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead (I will open up the January thread later today). The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month.

For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2013. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html

The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.

More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2013 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 2nd January

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line).

I will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year and post updates in this thread.


Edited by user 03 June 2013 21:53:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline Dougie  
#2 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:35:51(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

Thanks Simon, 9.96°c for me please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline alan  
#3 Posted : 27 December 2012 17:58:41(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 184
Location: Broughty Ferry,Dundee

My carefully considered........guess, which is based on the square root of eff all, is - 10.12c.


Thanks. Looking forward to keeping tabs on this next year.

Edited by user 27 December 2012 17:59:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

#4 Posted : 27 December 2012 18:07:14(UTC)

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

10.25 C. please.

Offline Snow Hoper  
#5 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:06:38(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,368
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

10.02C for me please.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:17(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,453
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

9.52c for me please......:-)

Thanks for running all of these CET variations SC, they are great!

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline llamedos  
#7 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:55(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 32,622
Location: Hertfordshire

10.29C please.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Online Saint Snow  
#8 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:46:42(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,039
Location: St Helens



Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline GezM  
#9 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:52:38(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,404
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

10.10C please. Cool

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline nouska  
#10 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:57:24(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,633
Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

10.53C for me, please.
Offline redmoons  
#11 Posted : 28 December 2012 01:27:17(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,636
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.57c for me



ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

#12 Posted : 28 December 2012 10:08:39(UTC)

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

I'll have a stab at 10.33C
Offline llamedos  
#13 Posted : 30 December 2012 08:27:58(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 32,622
Location: Hertfordshire


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Online Essan  
#14 Posted : 30 December 2012 09:11:38(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 33,084
Location: Albion


Edited by user 30 December 2012 09:13:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified


Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Roonie  
#15 Posted : 30 December 2012 15:30:34(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,461
Location: North Worcestershire

9.71 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#16 Posted : 30 December 2012 17:30:31(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC)
Posts: 36,619
Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Please give me a 9.72 thanks.

New world order coming.
Offline Stormchaser  
#17 Posted : 30 December 2012 19:27:40(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,084
Location: West Hants

I really don't have a clue

The Met Office are predicting that 2013 will be the warmest year globally since records began:


...but we all know how little that tends to mean for the UK, aside from increased moisture levels!

I'm anticipating some cold weather for the second half of Jan and perhaps through a large part of February, so a cold start to rise from - but then spring 2013 could be dry and warm or cold and wet or any combination of those as far as I'm concerned!

As for the summer, could we really see yet another cool one? Unfortunately it does not come down to 'balancing' but rather the state of countless variables, some of which seem to be heavily favouring particular states of late - solar activity low, ENSO towards La Nina, Arctic Sea ice low, and so on.

The autumn and winter 2013... why even bother


So all I can do is throw out a number and cross my fingers I'll go for 9.77°C please.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

#18 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:14:55(UTC)

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

8.39 oC please

Offline doctormog  
#19 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:18:29(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 75,020

I like nice round numbers so will go for 10.0°C please.
Offline Taylor1740  
#20 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:53:27(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 536
Location: Leeds

 9.49c please

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
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