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Offline Stormchaser  
#81 Posted : 12 March 2012 23:50:58(UTC)
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I'm starting to develop a suspiscion that while high pressure may be keen to stick around to our SW next month, it might actually get drawn up to our NW on multiple occasions.


April could be on the cool side and often showery as cold airmasses interact with the strengthening sunshine. In between those outbreaks, high pressure would probably be close by. Organised rainfall might be hard to come by if that version of events materialises, but even so rainfall could be near average for most places, above in the north.


 


There isn't much I can draw on to support my suspiscion and to be honest I have no confidence in it whatsoever Why did I post this, you ask? Well, there's always a chance that by some fluke of nature this vision of the future could turn out close to the mark, in which case I'll be glad I posted it

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Steam Fog  
#82 Posted : 13 March 2012 08:51:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


I'm starting to develop a suspiscion that while high pressure may be keen to stick around to our SW next month, it might actually get drawn up to our NW on multiple occasions.


April could be on the cool side and often showery as cold airmasses interact with the strengthening sunshine. In between those outbreaks, high pressure would probably be close by. Organised rainfall might be hard to come by if that version of events materialises, but even so rainfall could be near average for most places, above in the north.


 


There isn't much I can draw on to support my suspiscion and to be honest I have no confidence in it whatsoever Why did I post this, you ask? Well, there's always a chance that by some fluke of nature this vision of the future could turn out close to the mark, in which case I'll be glad I posted it



Hardly strong evidence, but CFS v2 would tend to support a slightly less blocked set up.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html


Whether they'll say the same tomorrow...

Online Gavin D  
#83 Posted : 15 March 2012 17:09:34(UTC)
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The met offices probability maps for March for the period from April to June have updated


Rain


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_prec_months24_europe_prob_public.png


850 hPa Temperature


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_t850_months24_europe_prob_public.png


Pressure


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_mslp_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Edited by user 15 March 2012 17:11:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Stormchaser  
#84 Posted : 18 March 2012 17:41:42(UTC)
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Those Met Office probability maps highlight the potential for high pressure to be more dominant to the west of the UK. It even shows something I've been suspecting, which is that we're just moving into a period of several months during which high-latitude blocking struggles to really take hold, meaning a dominance of mid-latitude blocks instead.


High pressure dominant to the west can allow for troughing across the UK, but in April and May you'd expect this to be quite slack in nature, giving showery conditions rather than organised frontal rain. While that is standard fare for the former month in particular, I fear that with a dominance of winds from the northwest and north, the south and particularly the southeast would struggle to get a lot of rain. Such a setup was largely responsible for summer 2010 being rather cool but also drier than average IMBY.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Online Gavin D  
#85 Posted : 19 March 2012 20:31:51(UTC)
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The IOD model has updated for March


March to May


Rain fall


Continues to be below normal


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2012.1mar2012.gif


Temperature


Close to or just above normal


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2012.1mar2012.gif

Offline Stormchaser  
#86 Posted : 20 March 2012 09:24:39(UTC)
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The signal for blocking to the NW of the UK has developed a tad further this morning.


It could mean some very interesting April weather, with the classic April showers in full swing. To provide appreciable rain for most or all of us we need troughing to dive right over the UK rather than to the east, as the latter doesn't tend to deliver much to southern areas.


If we get something from the north, we usually find that the pattern either reloads, or high pressure collapses over the UK, or - and this is the holy grail for drought-busting weather - we get Atlantic lows undercutting the block to our NW and attacking from the SW.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Brummie Snowman  
#87 Posted : 20 March 2012 14:03:41(UTC)
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We are well overdue for a cool April. The last sub 7c April was way back in 1989.
Offline Stormchaser  
#88 Posted : 20 March 2012 23:24:28(UTC)
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GP just posted on Netweather about the prospects for April that arise due to a rise in angular momentum and changes in the MJO... essentially the support is for high pressure located W or NW of the UK, potentially far enough as to allow for lots of troughing over the UK - however, GP points out that the AO is looking to remain positive, which would likely place high pressure in close proximity to the UK. That would mean a different feel to the month but a continuation of the low rainfall issues down in the south in particular.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline LeedsLad123  
#89 Posted : 24 March 2012 02:17:18(UTC)
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Even though GFS predicted temperatures of 19C in Yorkshire, it looks like the Met Office were right all along, low cloud and fog will just ruin it. Curse the North Sea and ALL easterly winds

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Online Gavin D  
#90 Posted : 24 March 2012 17:24:51(UTC)
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CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif


Steam Fog  
#91 Posted : 24 March 2012 17:54:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif




 


That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.


CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html


Offline nouska  
#92 Posted : 25 March 2012 09:02:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif




 


That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.


CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html




The new version is showing a warm April for our neck of the woods too.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20120324.201204.gif


I'm more inclined to favour the BCC for trends as it has been more consistent than the CFS in picking out the major pattern changes of the last few years. All the long rangers are showing a cooling NH as summer progresses - time will tell.

Steam Fog  
#93 Posted : 25 March 2012 16:17:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif




 


That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.


CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html




The new version is showing a warm April for our neck of the woods too.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20120324.201204.gif


I'm more inclined to favour the BCC for trends as it has been more consistent than the CFS in picking out the major pattern changes of the last few years. All the long rangers are showing a cooling NH as summer progresses - time will tell.



Rather contrarily though on the more detailed CFSv2 map it shows no indications of warm anomalies in western Europe in April...


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

Offline nouska  
#94 Posted : 26 March 2012 09:47:22(UTC)
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@ Steam Fog; it's a different set of ensembles within V2 and a more up to date run - doesn't mean any more accurate though!
Steam Fog  
#95 Posted : 26 March 2012 19:08:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
@ Steam Fog; it's a different set of ensembles within V2 and a more up to date run - doesn't mean any more accurate though!


The Europe ones have updated today. Looks pretty average to me. Possibly milder in June. But I'm still rather dubious about these even in v2!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa...v2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Edited by user 26 March 2012 19:09:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Online Gavin D  
#96 Posted : 27 March 2012 20:49:53(UTC)
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I would take this for the rest of spring and summer


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif



Edited by user 27 March 2012 20:54:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steam Fog  
#97 Posted : 27 March 2012 22:41:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


I would take this for the rest of spring and summer


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif





Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.

Offline Sevendust  
#98 Posted : 28 March 2012 09:30:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


I would take this for the rest of spring and summer


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif





Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.



Personal


I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought

Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
Offline Stormchaser  
#99 Posted : 28 March 2012 15:49:05(UTC)
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It seems that blocking to our NW may play a part in determining the weather over the UK during April and May, however it might lose out to a Euro block from time to time, with troughing trapped near the Azores.


Potentially we could see dramatic swings in temperature from one week (or fortnight) to the next, rather like how conditions may have changed in 10 days time when compared to now.


The pattern seems reluctant to arrange such as to place troughing near or over the UK for more than the odd spell of a few days, so as yet there's not much sign of drought-breaking rains across much England and Wales at least. Scotland and some NE parts of England may experience some useful convective showers on numerious occasions.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Steam Fog  
#100 Posted : 28 March 2012 22:32:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


I would take this for the rest of spring and summer


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif





Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.



Personal


I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought



Heat waves and drought are not completely unrelated?


If all year all you wish for is mild, dry, high pressure dominated weather and then that is what you have, it is perhaps not a surprise if drought conditions follow?


And certainly a warmer than average, sunny spring and summer would be great. Lovely sunny days by the beach are great. Just a shame if it follows a drier than average winter, spring, summer, autumn, winter... Ideally it would be good to have cooler and wetter weather in late autumn, winter, early spring (rather than the options of dry, dusty, drought through summer, or a wet and cool summer which avoids a drought, but is not much fun).


For the remainder of spring at least CFSv2 (for what it;s worth) looks average


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html 

Edited by user 28 March 2012 22:39:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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