I don't like the sound of that baking hot summer.. 

I'll just settle for average thanks.

But this is the Spring 2012 thread is it not? 

Hoping for some more snow in March though.. and a lot of rain.. no boring weather, please (i.e sunny every day, yawn)!! 

I don't like the sound of that baking hot summer.. 

I'll just settle for average thanks.

But this is the Spring 2012 thread is it not? 

Hoping for some more snow in March though.. and a lot of rain.. no boring weather, please (i.e sunny every day, yawn)!! 

I stand corrected! Spring it is!

No more snow, winter had it's chanceand blew it!

However spring and summer imo have become blurred so (for now) please excuse me but when I say summer, I mean spring... with the urge to say summer

and personally I'd prefer a summer with temps not above 20°C ( and rain by night) and if you can call it 'spring' Temps hovering around 14 to 16°C bright sunny days with some beefy showers thrown in on occasions

Out of curiosity here is the Met Office review of last Spring.

Exceptionally warm and dry Spring 2011

"Spring 2011 (March, April and May) was remarkable for the unusual warmth during April and the persistent lack of rainfall during March and April, particularly over England and Wales. The dry conditions persisted into May across eastern England, with growing concerns for water management, wildlife and agriculture.

It was both the equal-warmest Spring across the UK in the last 100 years, comparable with Spring 2007, and the equal-driest Spring across England and Wales..."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2011_spring/

Neck on the block I'm going for an average spring followed by a baking hot summer with a few lightning storms thrown in

A while back we were dued for a cold snowy winter and we've had a few of them

Now I think we are due for a hot summer and some thunderstorms thrown in

Sounds good to me

Im hoping for some proper beefy April showers this year too. Love those heavy shower/rainbow sort of days where literally anything can fall from the sky

Neck on the block I'm going for an average spring followed by a baking hot summer with a few lightning storms thrown in

A while back we were dued for a cold snowy winter and we've had a few of them

Now I think we are due for a hot summer and some thunderstorms thrown in

Sounds good to me

Im hoping for some proper beefy April showers this year too. Love those heavy shower/rainbow sort of days where literally anything can fall from the sky

I'm hoping that because of this gentle weather we are experiencing at the mo, there's something of an event waiting just around the corner and I hope it's thunderstorms and the start of some heavy April shower (All be it a month early) Good old British weather, full of wait and see surprises (Mid march may probably end up with 10ft of snow  knowing our luck)

TWO spring forecast in the next few hours.

TWO spring forecast in the next few hours.

Excellent, I'm guessing the propects of significant rain for the south are very slim in the short term.

TWO spring forecast in the next few hours.

Thank you Brian I'm probably way off course, but I get this gut feeling of thunderstorms in the next couple of months (Wishfull thinking)

Online.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Online.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Thanks Brian. Springs a good season, so an average spring, a little mild, not too dry would be fine. "Not very dry" would be very good in terms of holding off the drought. Sure it won't be 81F?

Online.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Thanks Brian

Thanks Brian

What nags me is how the weather patterns are often settling into something akin to the old unsettled westerlies that gave reasonable rains for the south, only for the boundary between airmasses to be too far north, leaving the south high and dry. From Thursday, we change things for total high pressure dominance for a while, before it looks to be reverting back to the pattern I described beforehand. Because of that, I'm thinking that while the south may experience another dry spring, perhaps very dry, more northern regions (I have to be vague here, its long range speculation!) may see average or above average rainfall. Hence only residents down this end of the UK may be thinking "dry spring, wet summer?" come the middle part of May.

If you take Brian's forecast and shove it all a bit north, with high pressure being stubborn across the far south, then you have what my gut feeling is pointing towards. Obviously Brian's forecast is a better prospect for the UK in terms of reducing or averting drought conditions. I'd enjoy a classic showery April, even if it was a tad cooler than average, provided May was okay and the summer wasn't a bummer

Online.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Bank!

I wonder, is there a March update to the JAMSTEC long range model forecasts? tia

There is building evidence at the moment for spring to contain a fair amount of dry weather. I'd be amazed if it was as dry as last spring, but increasingly I can see how it could be similar in the south at least. Recent word on the latest  teleconnections have made my idea of the north seeing near or above average rainfall seem less likely... its only a gut feeling, after all.

I wonder, is there a March update to the JAMSTEC long range model forecasts? tia

 

There is building evidence at the moment for spring to contain a fair amount of dry weather. I'd be amazed if it was as dry as last spring, but increasingly I can see how it could be similar in the south at least. Recent word on the latest  teleconnections have made my idea of the north seeing near or above average rainfall seem less likely... its only a gut feeling, after all.

The one for February updated at the end of last month, the update for March will be done at the end of this month

This is the March to May rain fall

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2012.1feb2012.gif

and temperatures

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2012.1feb2012.gif

Thanks Gavin D

I guess that last update was at the end of January, as the period covered is from 1st February?

I was looking for an end of February update for the period from 1st March but it appears that there isn't one.

Thanks Gavin D

I guess that last update was at the end of January, as the period covered is from 1st February?

I was looking for an end of February update for the period from 1st March but it appears that there isn't one.

Yes from what I can gather they must update around the last week of each month so the update for March should happen WC 26th

I'm starting to develop a suspiscion that while high pressure may be keen to stick around to our SW next month, it might actually get drawn up to our NW on multiple occasions.

April could be on the cool side and often showery as cold airmasses interact with the strengthening sunshine. In between those outbreaks, high pressure would probably be close by. Organised rainfall might be hard to come by if that version of events materialises, but even so rainfall could be near average for most places, above in the north.

There isn't much I can draw on to support my suspiscion and to be honest I have no confidence in it whatsoever Why did I post this, you ask? Well, there's always a chance that by some fluke of nature this vision of the future could turn out close to the mark, in which case I'll be glad I posted it