Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

What does that show then for July to September? rain or warmth or both?

A big upper trough over the UK and blocking over Greenland.

...not another shite summer

...not another shite summer

Surely three months till we get to the prospects for summer thread! 

Surely April 2011 is going to take some beating! I would be very surprised indeed if April 2012 was anything like as warm or dry as last year!

April 2011 was the last month I spent in the UK before moving to Australia and my memory is of some hot days and summer like weather nearly all month long! I remember the ground around York was cracked and baked dry and the landscape looked like it had suffered a July heatwave.

April is awlays the most interesting month of spring I think and I think this year will be interesting as there will be some wild swings between warm (even 20c days again!) and cold with snow on higher ground and thunder storms. Much more active April this year perhaps.

I have a feeling May will be changeable and Atlantic dominated but will lead to a hot summer this time.

Surely April 2011 is going to take some beating! 

Would have thought so!

Here's the UKMO anomaly map for April.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/4/2011_4_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

And for last Spring.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/13/2011_13_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

April was certainly the most above average Spring month temperature wise last year. Very dry too in all bar the west of Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/4/2011_4_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

Surely April 2011 is going to take some beating! 

Would have thought so!

Here's the UKMO anomaly map for April.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/4/2011_4_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

And for last Spring.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/13/2011_13_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

April was certainly the most above average Spring month temperature wise last year. Very dry too in all bar the west of Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/4/2011_4_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

Thanks for that, really shows how outstanding April 2011 was, 2 like that in a row would be asking a bit much surely.

Agree it would be remarkable if we had anything like another april 2011,when we had our summer last year

I personally trhink march will see winter hanging on and i think march is more a winter month than a spring one,spring proper doesn`t start until the clocks change.

April will propably be changeable with some big fluctuations in weather

May will be an absolute cracker,very warm,dry but breaking down right at the end.

I too hope we do not have another shite summer we are overdue a good one!!

I hope we get plenty of rain as we sure as hell need it here in the south east  and average summer as that will help the water shortages  as well.

Hasn't a cold february usually lead to boiling summers. i.e. 1947, 1986, 2005. Especially if it's cold towards the end of February summers tend to be lovely. Seems over recent years as our cold weather is happening in December rather than February, which leads to wet and ghastly summers. The best hope is to have some snow before February is out looks very unlikely at this stage though

Let's hope Spring 2012 is wet and windy and we may have some hope for summer!! :)

 

I hope we get plenty of rain as we sure as hell need it here in the south east  and average summer as that will help the water shortages  as well.

If the rain has to come at some time I would rather it came now in steady non disruptive style to even out the drought problem gently rather than in the awful deluges that I fear are coming for summer itself. Flooding is not a substitute for drought

Last year a very warm Spring fortunately led to a temperate and pleasant summer with mostly low humidity and with very few storms. I'm not so sure luck will hold this year - the patterns look too much like 2007 all over again

Hasn't a cold february usually lead to boiling summers. i.e. 1947, 1986, 2005. Especially if it's cold towards the end of February summers tend to be lovely. Seems over recent years as our cold weather is happening in December rather than February, which leads to wet and ghastly summers. The best hope is to have some snow before February is out looks very unlikely at this stage though

 

Let's hope Spring 2012 is wet and windy and we may have some hope for summer!! :)

There is no relationship between winter and summer, or summer and winter for that matter, but FYI, summer 1986 was actually an appalling summer with one of the coldest/wettest Augusts of the 20th century, though June wasn't too bad.

2005 wasn't that exciting either. It had a decent June, but things went downhill for August. It was a warm summer overall, but nothing out of the ordinary.

 

I hope we get plenty of rain as we sure as hell need it here in the south east  and average summer as that will help the water shortages  as well.

If the rain has to come at some time I would rather it came now in steady non disruptive style to even out the drought problem gently rather than in the awful deluges that I fear are coming for summer itself. Flooding is not a substitute for drought

Last year a very warm Spring fortunately led to a temperate and pleasant summer with mostly low humidity and with very few storms. I'm not so sure luck will hold this year - the patterns look too much like 2007 all over again

Winter 2007 was wet here, so I'm not so sure. 

 

I hope we get plenty of rain as we sure as hell need it here in the south east  and average summer as that will help the water shortages  as well.

If the rain has to come at some time I would rather it came now in steady non disruptive style to even out the drought problem gently rather than in the awful deluges that I fear are coming for summer itself. Flooding is not a substitute for drought

Last year a very warm Spring fortunately led to a temperate and pleasant summer with mostly low humidity and with very few storms. I'm not so sure luck will hold this year - the patterns look too much like 2007 all over again

Winter 2007 was wet here, so I'm not so sure. 

I meant the pattern from now through Spring

WSI apparently calling a mild March, but cool April and May for the UK.

WSI apparently calling a mild March, but cool April and May for the UK.

WSI apparently calling a mild March, but cool April and May for the UK.

World Sexuality Institute?

If one looks at the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis sea level pressure composite anomaly (using 1981-2000 avg.) charts for each of the spring months following winters which have seen a positive NAO for Dec, Jan and Feb, such as this one is likely to have had, then one sees a strong negative NAO predicted for March and April, declining into May.

Blocking is strong across Greenland and towards Siberia in March, with a massive low pressure anomaly over the UK. The pattern amplifies in April, with very strong blocking but also a strong negative anomaly still across the UK. Come May, the negative anomaly has shifted south of the UK, with a strong positive anomaly across Scandinavia extending into the Atlantic via the UK.

I don't have direct links, only a link to the Netweather forum thread in which it was posted:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-technical-model-discussion/page__st__1420

In light of that, the CFS predicted anomalies are less favoured than those of the Beijing model.

If we do get a spring dominated by northern blocking and troughing near the UK, then I'll be more hopeful of a decent summer, although there is the risk that high pressure persists in the high latitudes beyond May.

If you take a half-way house between CFS and the Beijing model then you have some higher latitude blocking but with high pressure dominating conditions across the UK, keeping rainfall on the low side.

WSI apparently calling a mild March, but cool April and May for the UK.

A sub 7c CET for April would be interesting, something we haven't seen for quite a while.

Forget spring, summer has arrived in Newcastle

Neck on the block I'm going for an average spring followed by a baking hot summer with a few lightning storms thrown in

A while back we were dued for a cold snowy winter and we've had a few of them

Now I think we are due for a hot summer and some thunderstorms thrown in