CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Seriously, how much times has that chart changed!

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry.

Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

---

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Oh, now these are fun. Take a look at the October 2010 ones, which forecast December 2010 to be above - yes, above - average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif 

I am sure there are other hilarious ones for other months

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Oh, now these are fun. Take a look at the October 2010 ones, which forecast December 2010 to be above - yes, above - average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif 

I am sure there are other hilarious ones for other months

That's classic! I'm sure it's a totally random guess for each chart they come out with

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

A scientist!  Sorry couldn't resist. 

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Sorry the charts are only archived around the 13th of each month.

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

not sure that they are available unless someone else has archived them

The CFS pressure charts look terrible for cold at the moment... but fear not, I've seen them hastily adding a bit of northern blocking at the last minute several times this year (particularly during the summer )

 

There is an interesting post on Netweather (from Lorenzo) that points out how NAO is dropping rapidly in the recent ESRL/PSD ensemble model output. Then he writes that our current MJO state, if extrapoloted (a dangerous game, assuming similar trends to times past), places us in a 2010 run of events only starting a month later on.

 

Perhaps January will be record breakingly cold

Yeah, we can all dream... its just a possibility, as are so many things in this world, like me owning a koenigsegg Agera R

Anyone know when the Hadley winter season chart update takes placethis month.They went from below average in September to neutral/slight positive in October.If Novenbers update is as CFS I,ll be seriuously worried

 

The CFS pressure charts look terrible for cold at the moment... but fear not, I've seen them hastily adding a bit of northern blocking at the last minute several times this year (particularly during the summer )

 

There is an interesting post on Netweather (from Lorenzo) that points out how NAO is dropping rapidly in the recent ESRL/PSD ensemble model output. Then he writes that our current MJO state, if extrapoloted (a dangerous game, assuming similar trends to times past), places us in a 2010 run of events only starting a month later on.

 

Perhaps January will be record breakingly cold

Yeah, we can all dream... its just a possibility, as are so many things in this world, like me owning a koenigsegg Agera R

Anyone know when the Hadley winter season chart update takes placethis month.They went from below average in September to neutral/slight positive in October.If Novenbers update is as CFS I,ll be seriuously worried

They'll be updating any day now.

Well, here in Scotland we have had fog here for 6 hours. The last 3 nights have been FREEZING with the temperature staying at 1* and 2*. I have saw 5 gritters, now, in three nights.

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

A scientist!  Sorry couldn't resist. 

I left out a comma, I meant that I am a scientist, but that wasn't actually clear in my post! My point was that without a proper analysis or a specific year on year comparison, an isolated chart from last year is far from a valid analytical tool. In other words it is posted to prove a point or agenda rather than a proper scientifically valid analysis. So, yes it shows that the CPC charts can get it right but we could post many other similar charts to show that they can often get it wrong and fluctuate wildly from one scenario to another.

---

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

A scientist!  Sorry couldn't resist. 

I left out a comma, I meant that I am a scientist, but that wasn't actually clear in my post! My point was that without a proper analysis or a specific year on year comparison, an isolated chart from last year is far from a valid analytical tool. In other words it is posted to prove a point or agenda rather than a proper scientifically valid analysis. So, yes it shows that the CPC charts can get it right but we could post many other similar charts to show that they can often get it wrong and fluctuate wildly from one scenario to another.

Phew, you had me worried there doc.  Totally agree with what your saying, young Gavin D is merely trolling. 

Whilst i never trust them, I just had a lil look myself and found this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif  

It seems the only archive charts are on the 12th or 13th of each month.

Although i have just noticed this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201009/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif but before that it was this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201008/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif and this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201007/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

There does seem to be a lack of consistancy, but the months with the coldest anomalies always seemed to be October, November and December.