Have to say, I am liking the trends on the big three at the moment.

Very much in line with my thoughts that August would show a marked improvement.

---

Have to say, I am liking the trends on the big three at the moment.

Very much in line with my thoughts that August would show a marked improvement.

All i can add to that is one word

"trumpet"..

This summer has been alright for me up until recently. I'm not a big fan of summer whether the weather is good or not so the sooner it's over the better for me 

 

 

I  entirely agree with you

Have to say, I am liking the trends on the big three at the moment.

Very much in line with my thoughts that August would show a marked improvement.

May have spoken too soon

I think August is going to be very wet and perhaps autumnal at times,with windy conditions and some rather cool periods, but some warm periods, with lows pulling up the warmth from the continent. I think august is going to be the wettest summer month this year, perhaps the wettest month of the year for some?

Here I provide my own description of the evolving scenario in the models, which I felt was general enough and covering a large enough period of time to qualify being posted here rather than in the MOD thread:

 

The Atlantic looks to be looping well south of normal as we go into August, thanks to a Greenland High which extends ridging down through the Atlantic.

This is not looking like what we had in June, however. You see, the ridge is expecting to be further to our west than before. This means that the Atlantic will be tracking furthest south before it reaches the UK, then pulling northeastward.

The result is that a lot of hot continental air can be pulled northward towards the UK. At the same time, that Greenland High is providing plenty of cool air to our north.

High pressure can even attempt to build in from the south at times, however it doesn't look to be capable of holding off the Atlantic, which itself is being fuelled by some tropical energy on top of everything else.

This means that we find ourselves home to the borderline between the hot and cool airmasses. As that moves up and down the country, many places may see some very serious rainfall indeed. Temperatures will vary considerably from one side of the borderline to the other, with the south quite often seeing warm conditions (by day, this will be in terms of how it will feel, not the actual temperature relative to average. Nights could easily be warm in both senses of the word though), if rather cloudy, whilst the north is often rather cool (in both senses of the word). Windy conditions are looking to be frequent especially from the midlands north.

---

Just noticed how low the mean SLP has bean so far this month 1008.9mb very low for August

The scenario I outlined at the end of last month has only materialised to a very weak extent, if at all.

The models were overdoing the magnitude of the high pressure across Greenland and ridging into the UK from the southwest.

We've had a few significant rain events caused by the borderline between airmasses across the UK, but its been nothing like as extreme as it could have been.

 

The models were suggesting that the pattern coudl amplify a bit during this coming week, bringing first a lot of hot air from the south and then some cool air from the north, the clash of the two being a recipe for some serious rainfall. Now the plume is far less pronounced and conditions are once again looking to be very benign for the south especially.

Boring times although at least the sun has returned down this way

---

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

As has been said by countless people, LRF's are not an exact science (far from it).

I've predicted August to be the best month of the three, with June and July a virtual wash-out.....So who knows what summer's going to be like.

Do think that early June (apart from the next few days) looks very unsettled and quite cool.

Heh - I've seen such a wide variation in LRF's for this summer it'll be interesting to see what happens.....but whatever methodology you use it can only really be a best guess

so all in all nobody really knows!!!!

 

Correct

How true that was LOL. Looking back at the LRF's they were generally way out at some point. I was disappointed with my June prediction as the rainfall was well above average locally. The suppression of daytime temperatures and some notably cold nights served to scupper much warmth overall. August redeemed things for me as I expected a crap month and so it has been

 

It seems to me we should have separate discussion threads for the various seasons, divided into those living in the North and West and us living in the South and East as there are always such wide variances in them with those in the North saying how awful the weather is and us in the South saying the opposite 

 

It seems to me we should have separate discussion threads for the various seasons, divided into those living in the North and West and us living in the South and East as there are always such wide variances in them with those in the North saying how awful the weather is and us in the South saying the opposite 

What about those living in the middle?  Do they get to contribute to both threads?

I thought the summer has been almost universally mediocre....

---

This evening I've been thinking about my 'fun forecast' for the summer and how well it did regarding conditions IMBY (I have not the records, memory nor time to provide an adequate analysis regarding the whole of England, let alone the UK!)

It wasn't a particularly detailed affair but it called for a summer that tended to improve as it went along, saw rather a lot of rain until early to mid July and featured some decent plumes of hot air which tended to miss us to the east quite a lot but with a few good hits especially later on.

 

So, did the summer as a whole tend to improve as it went along? IMO it did, somewhat erratically, until mid-August, beyond which it really let itself go. The first two weeks of August were statistically the warmest of the summer here and didn't do too badly for sunshine either. A significant rainfall event meant that it was wetter than average, though, with a few cloudy days still cropping up. Yep, no fortnight delivered better conditions than that this summer!

There was rather a lot of rainfall until a little way beyond mid June, this persisting until mid July, beyond which it became rather wet again. So it turned drier a bit earlier than I envisioned and the drier conditions failed to last even to the end of July, let alone well into August not a particularly good call there, then.

A couple of decent plumes were noted this summer, one at the end of June (not expected in the grand scheme of things) and one to start off August (more like what I was imagining). Neither were as intense as I reckoned was possible in terms of ground temperatures, although the late June one did see 21C uppers scraping the south coast in the early morning and the highest maximum in the UK since 2006

 

All in all, I think I did alright for my own location. It was never as warm as I hoped for in any summer month, however; my CET predictions of 16.1C for June and 17.1C for July were a reflection of my fun forecast. My 16.1C prediction for August was not - this was me throwing my fun forecast out the window and expecting a rather unimpressive August instead

---