I echo your appreciation for Frank`s running of this competition. Iam sure all those who take part are grateful to him.

 

Now the final October CET figure has been confirmed by Hadley as 12.8c we are odds on to record the first 11c+ annual CET.

If November comes in mild/warm which is looking highly likley at say around 8c December needs only a CET of 3.5c to achieve an annual CET of 11c plus. Imo i think we will exceed the 11c mark by some margin and 2022 the warmest year for the uk in recorded history.

That would be a first when measuring the 12 month period as December to January but of course there are 11 other 12 month periods each year which can also be measured at month-ends. On this basis we have already had 17 periods of 11c or over - all from 2007 or later

The current reading based on Nov 2021-Oct 2022 is 11.2C but well short of the record set for May 2006-Apr 2007 of 11.6c

It would be nice to beat this in December but that is much more of a stretch

Thanks Frank, Caz and Andrew. 

Yep, very good call Gusty. I can't believe how much the CET rose later in the month! 

The last 15 days averaged 13.72c

Wow! Must be a record? 

Off the back of Frank's hard work in collating all the data I've been using my decidedly basic excel skills to produce a few charts. These won't be as polished as GW's efforts but assuming no one else fancies doing them, and people like my versions, intention is I'll see how I go with the remaining months and if I've got the time/inclination I'll keep doing the charts for next year's comp too if needed. 

So table to end October looks like:-

Link to larger chart

Guesses table to follow in November thread when they're all in/collated. 

Hopefully I've not copied the data over wrong but any queries/comments/suggestions just yell.

P.S Apologies for the millions of ads on the link, will see if can find better site to use for hosting.....

Off the back of Frank's hard work in collating all the data I've been using my decidedly basic excel skills to produce a few charts. These won't be as polished as GW's efforts but assuming no one else fancies doing them, and people like my versions, intention is I'll see how I go with the remaining months and if I've got the time/inclination I'll keep doing the charts for next year's comp too if needed. 

So table to end October looks like:-

Link to larger chart

Guesses table to follow in November thread when they're all in/collated. 

Hopefully I've not copied the data over wrong but any queries/comments/suggestions just yell.

P.S Apologies for the millions of ads on the link, will see if can find better site to use for hosting.....

 

 

 

 

Dave, looks good.

just forwarded the file to you now with the predictions so you can work your magic

Cheers for that Dave, aligns well with some tracking I've also been doing out of interest. Just one big anomaly - I have moomin75 on a cumulative error of 10.42 rather than 8.16.

Presumably they revised one of their estimates (...by a lot!) but the table shared in the thread still had the original one?

Regardless, this month has made the competition a lot more exciting for most of us, by reducing for example the 1st to 7th place cumulative score range from 1.81 to just 0.89°C, following what was by far JMM2005's largest error so far this year (1.95°C). The previous largest was just 0.85°C (April), an extraordinary run of high accuracy.

AP Snowman also had their largest error so far with 1.75°C (previously 1.32°C in January) and although SSWD has leapfrogged into 2nd, their 1.05°C error has also contributed to the 'evening out' of the upper reaches of the table.

I'm feeling fortunate that a 1.51°C error hasn't put me further down the table, owing to the extreme nature of the final CET (5th warmest on record).

The Nov CET spread features a lot of very mild predictions, and I can see why given the near-term outlook. Next week could be extremely mild for the time of year. Thereafter, there are signs of cooler weather but no clear signal for cold conditions until the final third.

MJO-driven positive atmospheric angular momentum anomalies are propagating poleward as I type this and should reach the polar latitudes in the 2nd half of Nov. With that comes a high probability of a -NAO episode, which could mean some cold weather for the UK - BUT this is far from certain, as the -NAO could be east-based (cold or very cold UK), west-based (often mild UK unless very large blocking high), or balanced (chilly or cold UK).

I've decided to gamble on there being a cold spell of some sort that moderates a large positive CET anomaly. Am I sitting comfortably? Not at all! 

Cheers for that Dave, aligns well with some tracking I've also been doing out of interest. Just one big anomaly - I have moomin75 on a cumulative error of 10.42 rather than 8.16.

Presumably they revised one of their estimates (...by a lot!) but the table shared in the thread still had the original one?

 

 

Dave's chart has the same value as my table.

Where  has it gone wrong ?

Only second worst! I'm not even going to win the wooden spoon at this rate.

We're fighting for that "prize" 

Seriously though, we're only about 10 miles apart (I'm Leyland these days), perhaps we've both underestimated the warm conditions in the south especially this year and that's influenced our predictions too much?

Cheers for that Dave, aligns well with some tracking I've also been doing out of interest. Just one big anomaly - I have moomin75 on a cumulative error of 10.42 rather than 8.16.

Presumably they revised one of their estimates (...by a lot!) but the table shared in the thread still had the original one?

If you can ping me details of how you got to your figure I'll take a look through the data and see where the discrepancy is and just check what's going on? (If it's easier PM me and I'll give you my email)