Looking at the models as I put together my end-of-week farmers forecast for my FB page and where did all that come from?! Low pressure firmly in charge over the UK by the following weekend after a week of northerlies, a very Autumnal outlook when I was hoping for a continuation of the recent benign mild conditions. 

And so it begins. 

Or does it? The 06z looking much more like this morning's ECM with much more of a westerly pattern from Oct 1st.

 

Or does it? The 06z looking much more like this morning's ECM with much more of a westerly pattern from Oct 1st.

Looking at the models as I put together my end-of-week farmers forecast for my FB page and where did all that come from?! Low pressure firmly in charge over the UK by the following weekend after a week of northerlies, a very Autumnal outlook when I was hoping for a continuation of the recent benign mild conditions. 

And so it begins. 

Today we got the most bloody strong sunshine that boost indoors temps very well and most sunniest since this rotten dirty HP left.  Rain at night and mild then clear sunny daytime is very helpful and take more valuable solar heating indoors.  If this can carry on often then we use less heating and no need for HP as they are no use and cloud generators.

WX temps a little cooler than average in W Europe, a little warmer in E Europe, still warm in the E Med and Black Sea areas but cooling there in week 2; the freezing area noted yesterday beyond the Urals is much diminished today. Still no consistency in the rainfall pattern; quite widely distributed in week 1, but week 2 definitely altered with v dry area in C Europe and heavy rain over Pyrenees and separately Scandinavia to W Russia. Britain just averagely damp in N, drier in SE.

Jet - streaks from the N over or close to Britain to Thu 29th, then from the W to Tue 4th after which any activity is cleared to the N.

GFS Op - the N-ly pattern is back as on yesterday's 00z though absent for 06z. The current HP withdraws W-wards allowing LP to slide SE to N Sea 995 mb Wed 28th with N or NW-ly winds. Then deep LP near Iceland brings in a W-ly pattern until Tue 4th when a portion breaks off to Shetland 990 mb, followed almost immediately by rise of pressure on the Atlantic eventually 1025mb covering UK Mon 10th (but in getting there, some N-lies close to E coast). (Ex-)hurricanes ravaging Canada Sun 25th, Tue 4th and Mon 10th but no direct effect on this side of Atlantic.

ECM - something like GFS in outline but the 'LP near Iceland' is instead an LP 965mb Scotland Sat 1st with stronger W-lies further S, and even though this fills, LP remains closer to Scotland with W-lies covering all Britain down to Channel.

GEFS - general ens agreement on cool to Sat 1st (even cold near Wed 28th, though brief burst of warmth esp in N 26th), after which a spread of outcomes though mean stays near norm. Rain from time to time, most likely and heaviest near Sat 1st, and a tendency to appear in more ens members after that date despite GFS pressure patterns. 

Quite a model divergence in the 7 days range with ECM being keen on the idea of an active and deep low pressure taking a short cut through Scotland while GFS - who normally likes dartboard lows - shows a much more relaxed high pressure influenced set up. Unfortunately UKMO is siding with ECM so I have a feelling GFS may end up playing catch up. 

I could get deeper into this by looking at ensembles, etc, etc, but I got things to be getting on with (about to embark on a major doodle project). 

Quite a model divergence in the 7 days range with ECM being keen on the idea of an active and deep low pressure taking a short cut through Scotland while GFS - who normally likes dartboard lows - shows a much more relaxed high pressure influenced set up. Unfortunately UKMO is siding with ECM so I have a feelling GFS may end up playing catch up. 

I could get deeper into this by looking at ensembles, etc, etc, but I got things to be getting on with (about to embark on a major doodle project). 

And still saying the same thing 24 hour later, but all in 6 days away. ECM being bullish about deep low right atop the UK while GFS has it all much further north. UKMO similar to ECM but shallower.

A bit late getting up this morning - see Daily Thread for reason.

WX temp outlook; week  still cool over W Europe and definitely cold to N & E; week 2 some warmer weather working back in from SW  reaching Channel coasts but not affecting further N & E i.e. Iceland to Murmansk. Rain generally across Europe week 1, in week 2 very dry for Britain down to the Alps and rain on the edges of this area. (but the rainfall outlook changes day by day)

GFS Op ; LP sliding SE-wards to southern N Sea 995mb Wed 28th with N/NW-lies before filling. HP begins to affect SW Fri 30th and grows from there for a prolonged spell eventually 1030mb N England Fri 7th finally giving way to W-lies. Nearest deep LP during this time is 965mb E Iceland Sat 1st. Remnants of tropical storms on W Atlantic diverted N-wards by the HP block.

ECM ; the first LP  on Wed 28th not as deep as on GFS but then rather different around Sat 1st with a second LP 975mb S Scotland, not Iceland, with NW-lies before that moves away and HP block then in place later, 1030mb C England Wed 5th

GEFS ; cool to Sat 1st then warm for a few days (only average in Scotland) before mean drops back to norm temp in the middle of then much uncertainty, rain mostly around Sat 1st, not much at other times in S, more continuous in NW

 

And still saying the same thing 24 hour later, but all in 6 days away. ECM being bullish about deep low right atop the UK while GFS has it all much further north. UKMO similar to ECM but shallower.

I wonder if the differences are due to the remains of Hurricane Fiona which seems to be tracking towards an area over the sea between Greenland and Canada.   Very rare to get such an intense (if rapidly diminishing) storm in the West Greenland area.  Probably not a lot of history, or it is quite a weak area in the models programmes as to what happens next, hence the variation in the detail of the ensembles.  

We have seen similar before when there are remains of big Hurricanes in North Atlantic with inconsistency over how far north or how deep lows will be when they are 5+ days out.   Not a case of will there be low pressure, that’s virtually given, it’s just where it will be centred and how intense.

WX temps week 1 as before, cool for W Europe, some warmth on extreme W fringes, cold in the far NE. Week 2, the Atlantic warmth pushes a bit further inland and up to S England while the cold weather moves further W, to the Polish border and across N Scandinavia, creating something of a temp gradient W-E over Germany. Rain - forget yesterday's dry areas - week 1 quite a lot of rain everywhere in Europe exc Spain; week 2 less but still patchy for mainland Europe, the heavy stuff is reserved for Iceland - N Scotland - Norway.

Jet - strong jet developing across England Fri 30th lasting 2 or 3 days; briefly quiet than another blast, this time across N Scotland from Wed 5th which ties itself into a loop around Britain Mon 10th before braking up.

GFS Op - LP currently near Iceland but projecting N/NW-lies a long way south with accompanying fronts, itself moving to N Sea Wed 28th; new low Sat 1st 975 mb near Iceland again with trough projecting all the way down to S England. Then quieter W-lies for a while, the next deep LP appears Sun 9th 975mb Faeroes but fills and in conjunction with LP near Greenland brings in strong and mild SW-lies Wed 12th

GEFS - cold/cool to Sat 1st after which mean near norm but no real agreement in ens members; rain event near the 1st, bits and pieces on and off for the rest of the forecast period for most, but more particularly in the NW in the week following , and in the SW the week after.

ECM - as GFS to Sat 1st but LP nearer Scotland in the days immediately following, not deep but probably damp;  but then (this is now 12z from yesterday , I have to go out and can't wait for 0z to download) agreeing on quieter W-lies from Tue 4th

Models aside. This feels like the coldest end to September I can ever recall.

I have a notion that days below 15c do not arrive until around the 15th October.

~It is only 11c in London at the moment!

Not sure the models know how to deal with big storms heading up into the Arctic.  Anyway still relatively warm in North Cornwall at 14c but I've thrown a couple of logs on the burner rather than fire up the Oil C/H.

Looks like the first proper Autumnal weather of the season with a good few hours of strong to gale force winds and possibly a squall line feature on the cards for Friday, not arriving here at Kent until late night. Still room for fine tuning but such a feature is usually quite easy to forecast from afar such as now.
  At least things does look better by the weekend, though. 

WX temps; still something of a see-saw between the last remnants of summer and autumn arriving from the north. Week 1 as at present, with the colder air well spread across W Europe, beginning affect the Med; week 2 a push-back from the S with something a bit warmer in the far W (incl England) and also around the Black Sea while the colder area occupies the region from Scandinavia down to the Balkans. Rain well spread in week 1 exc Spain and Scandinavia; in week 2 (different from yesterday) dry S England to W Germany with rain circling this area.

GFS Op - current LP sliding down into N Sea with N-lies for Britain, filling but replaced at the weekend with LP 965mb Iceland projecting a trough all the way to the Channel. HP then revives from the SW, tending to form a ridge SW-NE over the UK and up to Norway until Tue 11th, nibbled at by from time to time by LP on either side. Finally Thu 13th it splits and allows trough from Greenland to France to form.

ECM - similar but until Fri 7th, when it moves to cover Britain, the ridge of HP is placed over France with moist-looking SW-lies for Scotland

GEFS - mean temps rising from cool now to a little above norm, highest around Wed 5th, then dropping back, definitely cooler by 12th. Rain event for Sat 1st, most ens members disagree with Op (i.e. WX above) and include some rain on some days thereafter, frequent in Scotland, but no consensus. 

Massive difference between the GFS & ECM OPs at day 10 Gfs brings in low pressure, that slowly fills and hangs about till the end of the run bringing cool and wet conditions 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

Ecm on the other hand builds pressure from the south with settled maybe foggy*? Weather

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Be interesting to see what the outcome is. 

WX temps: the existing pattern of cool W Europe, milder on Atlantic coasts (though less mild than forecast yesterday), definitely cold in far NE Europe continues for next two weeks, with some of the cooler weather pushing  into Turkey in week 2. Rainfall pattern also not unlike that shown yesterday, widely distributed in week 1 but in week 2 a dry area for France and Germany, rain across N Atlantic to Scandinavia, and esp heavy in C Med. 

GFS Op: depression in N Sea filling, replaced by active trough extending S from 960mb Iceland Sat 1st, then rise of pressure from SW at first extending just far enough N to fend off Atlantic LP but with strong SW-lies for western regions, later culminating in intense HP 1040mb Scotland Thu 13th (but a big change from yesterday when LP shown all the way across the Atlantic to include Britain at this time). An ex-hurricane on Fri 14th near US coast, could go anywhere.

ECM : similar to GFS but ridge of HP flatter and producing W-lies rather than SW-lies

GFS : temps up and down not far from norm, coolest now, warmest around Wed 5th, rain event on Sat 1st and spits and spots thereafter in different ens members, most likely after Mon 10th.

WX temps much the same as they have been; seasonally cool across W Europe with a little warmth on the Atlantic fringe; small patches of freezing conditions moved from Russia to Iceland and Norwegian mountains. Rain in week 1 on N Atlantic incl Britain and also a N_S band in E Europe but not entirely dry elsewhere; week 2, yesterday's dry patches have disappeared and there is rain on the Atlantic as above and also through the Med.

GFS: LP 965mb near Iceland Sat 1st with trough to Britain as previously forecast giving way to HP from the Atlantic mostly near S Britain with W/SW winds through to Wed 12th when shallow trough swings in cover Britain 1010mb Fri 14th

GEFS: in the S mean temp rising to above norm around Wed 5th then back to a little below (with little ens agreement) for the remainder of the forecast period, rain events for the weekend then mostly dry until later on. Scotland, temp trend similar but bits and pieces of rain throughout esp in W. 

ECM: similar to GFS though the Atlantic HP is closer and from time to time actually centred over UK

Hopes for high-pressure influenced settled conditions next week after the weekend's changeable stuff seems to be slowly evaporating with each run, a bit like our chances for snow in the Winter months. However, as a trade off it looks like temperatures being above average so that'll save on heating costs.

Hopes for high-pressure influenced settled conditions next week after the weekend's changeable stuff seems to be slowly evaporating with each run, a bit like our chances for snow in the Winter months. However, as a trade off it looks like temperatures being above average so that'll save on heating costs.

Most HP are cloud generator and they only bring cloud and very temperate temperatures, no diurnal and very boring.  I see the sun here most when it on the edge of exiting LP before HP bring clouds with it like during the Queen funeral Bank Holiday weekend..   We used to see temperatures up to 22-24C regularly for a day or 2 in early October in the post, more so in the 90's.

 

Most HP are cloud generator and they only bring cloud and very temperate temperatures, no diurnal and very boring.  I see the sun here most when it on the edge of exiting LP before HP bring clouds with it like during the Queen funeral Bank Holiday weekend..   We used to see temperatures up to 22-24C regularly for a day or 2 in early October in the post, more so in the 90's.

I was just checking that with Heathrow’s data, a probable hotspot, and there were 6 days in ten years of October data that reached the 22-24°C range in the 90s.

Back to the present and after the next day or two things don’t look too bad for the time of the year, relatively settled and not overly chilly.

Hopes for high-pressure influenced settled conditions next week after the weekend's changeable stuff seems to be slowly evaporating with each run, a bit like our chances for snow in the Winter months. However, as a trade off it looks like temperatures being above average so that'll save on heating costs.

Good!!

We've had too much high pressure already during this year and I'm sure that a lot of people will be much happier if we can at least, start to see those massive rainfall deficits being made up.

Plus, that might also result in me actually regaining some of my own interest in the weather which had largely evaporated just recently as a result of that largely predominately high pressure dominated pattern of weather which has been very persistent during the vast majority of this year, becoming increasingly boring and uninteresting over time as a result.