Onwards...

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Although the FAX analysis for 120 Hrs shows a depression with a warm, cold and slightly back bent occluded front in attendance. Whilst there may be a lifted warm core seclusion (and I'm thinking thats a bit hit and miss) the system looks baroclinic rather than barotropic to my admitedly untrained eye. Its possible the occlusion is being drawn incorrectly and there is indeed a fractured cold front allowing the seclusion through all layers, but that would still be more of a Shapiro Keyser type cyclone than a untransitioned Tropical Storm.

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Bow Echo:

Although the FAX analysis for 120 Hrs shows a depression with a warm, cold and slightly back bent occluded front in attendance. Whilst there may be a lifted warm core seclusion (and I'm thinking thats a bit hit and miss) the system looks baroclinic rather than barotropic to my admitedly untrained eye. Its possible the occlusion is being drawn incorrectly and there is indeed a fractured cold front allowing the seclusion through all layers, but that would still be more of a Shapiro Keyser type cyclone than a untransitioned Tropical Storm.

Tbf I think the 6Z GFS was a bit of a cherry pick, most model runs, as you say show a warm seclusion rather than a warm core and this still remains the most likely outcome.

Will say the Met is adverse to considering anything tropical though, so I'm not suprised they painted everything with fronts!

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After a warm and often sunny weekend this weekend in the south, we might be looking at another warm(ish) and dry(ish) weekend next weekend in the south. Much needed rain to come for the gardens before we get there however.

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WX temps - the cool down across N & W continues, with the last of the warmth draining away from the UK in week 2. Quite a lot of rain around, from the Atlantic to Poland in week 1, switching alignment to W France up to Scandinavia week 2, in both cases including Britain (the SE, at any rate, still needs it)

Synoptics - the current LP off Ireland continues as a major feature, deeper and more persistent than was forecast a week ago, and FAX shows a sequence of fronts circulating around it every day. There's general agreement that it moves E-wards by the weekend, arriving in Denmark Sat 10th with a rise of pressure for Britain. 

But then what about Danielle? NHC still has it heading directly for SW Britain, 500 miles off Land's End on Sat; GFS gives it a quick turn to the N where it hesitates before crossing Britain as a 'normal' depression 990mb Wed 14th; ECM does much the same but brings it back to Britain as a much weaker feature; UKMO operating as usual on a need-to-know basis leaves it in mid-Atlantic at the end of this week, slowly filling.

At the end of the ECM run, Hurricane Earl is very close to Nova Scotia and travelling N-wards, GFS has it as a much weaker feature decaying in mid- N Atlantic. GFS takes the forecast on to Sun 18th when the energy injected by these two hurricanes ends up as a deep depression over S Sweden 980 mb Sun 18th with Britain on the edge of cold N-lies for a day or two before pressure rises again 1025mb Wed 21st, the depression having moved to Finland.

 

GFS - if meaningful in view of above uncertainty - mean temps near norm (some colder outliers at end of run) and rain throughout - a FEW ens members with monster totals showing up in week 2 esp in S

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Both ECM and GFS Ops runs give us regular and widespread rain events through the next 10-15 days. Accumulated precipitation levels are high pretty much UK wide so the drought should continue to ease, where it still exists ......

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An unusually warm September is slowly creeping up on us, 2006-style. This evening's main models and ensembles all show 850s well above average now, cooling down to almost average later this week and then surging again potentially to 15C or more by the weekend. Most ensemble members are also above normal for the entirety of the run.

It's not dry, or particularly sunny. But warm, from decent daily maxes and very warm overnight lows. No sign of that autumn chill yet.

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An unusually warm September is slowly creeping up on us, 2006-style.

The summer trend continues unabated here. Forecast 21s turn into 23s and 24s a day out, then become 25s and 26s on the day.

I'm looking forward to cooler temperatures, but I'll have to wait a while I think!

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WX temp summary has managed to find some recovery for a warm September in W Europe especially over W France and SE Britain in week 2 but the colder pool over E Europe is still there and today's chart has it extending its influence into the Balkans instead of further W. Rainfall in week 1 as yesterday, a band from the Atlantic across Britain to C Europe but dramatically changed in week 2; bone dry for W Europe incl S England and rain banished to NE Atlantic plus Balkans through to Black Sea.

Synoptics all agree that the current LP off W Ireland continues active (more than was forecast at one stage) for 2 or 3 days before moving across to Denmark but even as it transits FAX shows thundery troughs still in its circulation.

Then there's ex-hurricane Danielle - the models now agree that it will lose storm features and turn a little N,  reaching the British Isles as a much weaker feature. ECM likes the idea of it developing  into a broad trough  from Biscay to the N Sea Tue 13th while LP from Iceland moves to NW Scotland Fri 16th. GFS Op takes Danielle down to France Tue 13th with a strong pressure rise over UK. Although LP develops near Iceland as per ECM it never comes close as the area of HP over the UK links to the Azores. NHC starts Danielle's stall and SE movement earlier, on Sat 10th.

Then there's (ex-) hurricane Earl. ECM flirts with the idea that it should interact with Danielle, but that comes to nothing and Earl dies quietly in mid-Atlantic. GFS Op keeps it as a much deeper feature and closer to Ireland before its remnants move N and add to the LP area near Iceland. Neither model shows it as an intense feature running up the US coast as an intense storm as was the case yesterday. I'm sure there are perturbations with yet other stories.

Then GFS brings in another hurricane Wed 20th on the W Atlantic, moving N at that stage ,,, 

GEFS - mean temps near norm, perhaps a little warmer around Thu 15th, a little cooler later, less agreement between ens members than yesterday. Less rain than yesterday after the initial storms, but not as little as implied by WX above,  with the greatest chance around the 15th.

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An unusually warm September is slowly creeping up on us, 2006-style. This evening's main models and ensembles all show 850s well above average now, cooling down to almost average later this week and then surging again potentially to 15C or more by the weekend. Most ensemble members are also above normal for the entirety of the run.

It's not dry, or particularly sunny. But warm, from decent daily maxes and very warm overnight lows. No sign of that autumn chill yet.

Either the 15c uppers or the over reacting apps 24 daily hours rain symbols and cool temps will be seriously wrong.  Last weekend apps was seriously wrong with rain all day and cool temps instead got 24 yesterday and Sunday as well with more sunshine around.  Window watching the way to go how it outside now.

You guys are the eyes and ears for total amateurs like me - Is there not anything exciting going on with the models at the moment?

 

Earl eats a stagnant Danielle amongst a backdrop of sunshine and showers?

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I'm going to pick up Moomin's suggestion and move lots of posts across to the drought thread. There may be a slight hiatus while this happens.

 

EDIT - all moved

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WX summaries show pleasantly warm weather over W Europe week 1 (only just including Scotland) but generally cooler in week 2, more so than yesterdays forecast, and even cooler in E Europe. Rain in week 1 in a band from Atlantic to the SW to Britain to Scandinavia with a spur to the Alps; same in week 2 but from the NW Atlantic. 

Synoptics - GFS and ECM differ in their treatment of the interaction of Ex-hurricanes Danielle and Earl. Both models clear our present LP to the E on Friday.

GFS then fancies taking Danielle down to Spain on Mon 12th before bringing it back later that week to the Channel, quite deep at first but dying over the Isle of Wight on Wed and swept up in the circulation of LP centred Norwegian Sea 990mb Fri 16th.Earl is treated as independent, first moving N to Greenland and then returning boosted by the Atlantic to cover Britain with centre 990mb Irish Sea Sun 18th.

ECM has Danielle and Earl interacting, Danielle hanging around as a feature off W Ireland until it links with Earl up as a trough from mid-Atlantic to Ireland Thu 15th which drifts across to the N Sea Sat 17th but no significant boost from the Atlantic.

NHC in a more limited time span, to Sat 10th, also keeps Danielle and Earl separate with Danielle near NW Spain as TS, Earl off Newfoundland and accelerating NW-wards as it loses hurricane status.

Extended GFS eventually generates a ridge of HP from the SW Thu 22nd but not until after a brief burst of N-lies as the LP on the 18th moves E-wards

GEFS - mean temps near norm, lying a little above norm in a week's time, then cooler later; rain anywhere at any time, some big totals in the N & W in some ens members, just a hint of drier in a couple of weeks.

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Anybody off to Portugal or Western Spain early next week could be in for a rude surprise. Quite a lot of rain is possible if the remnants of Danielle continue on their forecast track

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Anybody off to Portugal or Western Spain early next week could be in for a rude surprise. Quite a lot of rain is possible if the remnants of Danielle continue on their forecast track

 

Predicted by Elton John a while back

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA78e27R_J4

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In somerset I had the sunniest August by a country mile since 2011. Taken from solar panel readings.

 

Predicted by Elton John a while back

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA78e27R_J4

Wrong gender!  That’s Daniel - male.  Hurricane Danielle - female. 

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WX summary charts - temps staying modestly warm over the far west of Europe while colder air from the NE works down into S Germany and the Adriatic. A further change in rainfall pattern; generally drier than forecast yesterday -week 1 there is a band from the Atlantic across the UK to Ukraine, but this  moves S and W so in week 2 only W Britain is affected linking to an area along the N of the Med.

GFS Op - Danielle moves down to Portugal and dies offshore there Wed 14th; Earl also dies in mid-Atlantic about this date. Pressure rise over UK by Sat 17th dies away as N Atlantic fires up and westerlies set in with LPs running E-wards close to N Scotland from Wed 20th

ECM differs in its treatment of Earl which follows Danielle down to  a graveyard off Portugal Thu 15th while linking with a trough to the UK before the following weekend's pressure rise

GEFS temps around Tue 13th quite warm esp in S (Danielle promoting a flow from the S?) but otherwise near norm. Rain around in most places from time to time but less than yesterday though just one startling spike in the Op for London on the 14th

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Is the Met Office site down or too much traffic? Can't seem to load their site/charts properly.

WX temp charts look like yesterday's, modest warmth in W Europe (i.e. France and Britain) while cooler air spreads down from the NE for the rest of the continent. Rainfall well distributed in week 1, splitting into two bands in week 2, one (as ever) from W Britain up to Norway and the other through the W Med and Black Sea up into Russia. France is very dry.

GFS Op - something of a rise in pressure over Britain next week as Danielle heads for Spain and Earl dies in mid-Atlantic, though LP in the Norwegian Sea is never far from the Northern Isles and may affect E coasts. For w/b Mon 19th this translates into more of a W-ly pattern; charts at the end of the week suggest a breakdown either from the S or the NE or both but a long way off. Mon 19th itself looks a good day weatherwise for the Queen' s funeral if that is the date finally chosen.

ECM - similar though Danielle in Spain still active enough to delay the rise in pressure early next week, and more of a N-ly on the E Coast on Fri 16th, but HP strongly established for Mon 19th when needed.

GEFS - bump of warmth for the S Tue 13th and rain likely generally about that date, otherwise temp near norm and little rain for the next two weeks, perhaps some in the W in 2 weeks' time; much drier than yesterday's GFS

EDIT - not very exciting, which could explain why the MetO has withdrawn from  all but basic forecasts for the next two days, to mark the Queen's death.

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