theweatheroutlook

Ally Pally Snowman
14 July 2022 12:37:15

Monday looks baked in if you pardon the pun 38c to 40c. But Tuesday looks very uncertain still could be lots of cloud around even rain popping up. 42c needs clear skies for most of the day.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
14 July 2022 12:43:38

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Monday looks baked in if you pardon the pun 38c to 40c. But Tuesday looks very uncertain still could be lots of cloud around even rain popping up. 42c needs clear skies for most of the day.


 


Well you believe BBC South Today forecast just now, its only going to get to high 20s to 31c on Monday, 30c on Tuesday.


They are consistently hopeless.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
White Meadows
14 July 2022 12:46:14
BBC now going for 38, then 39c on Tuesday for Heathrow.

Met office mentions 40 is a distinct possibility also 😱
White Meadows
14 July 2022 12:48:05

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well you believe BBC South Today forecast just now, its only going to get to high 20s to 31c on Monday, 30c on Tuesday.


They are consistently hopeless.


They always play it down massively. I’m convinced it’s to avoid sending people into a scare. Website says otherwise.


silly really as they may as well be honest so people can prepare. 

BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2022 12:49:05
Anyone know the what the UK record is for 850s, I seem to remember 24c but can't find a reference to it. 06z GFS ensemble mean looks to be around 24c for Monday night. Amazing to see.
North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
bledur
14 July 2022 12:55:18

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


They always play it down massively. I’m convinced it’s to avoid sending people into a scare. Website says otherwise.


silly really as they may as well be honest so people can prepare. 



 BBc gives me a top of 33c Tuesday, Met Office just 30c. From the website

superteacher
14 July 2022 13:02:24

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well you believe BBC South Today forecast just now, its only going to get to high 20s to 31c on Monday, 30c on Tuesday.


They are consistently hopeless.



 


They also use old data. They are shockingly poor.

Polar Low
14 July 2022 13:04:59

I see Brian’s had a word


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1547528555835400194?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet



quote=White Meadows;1455437]BBC now going for 38, then 39c on Tuesday for Heathrow.

Met office mentions 40 is a distinct possibility also 😱

John p
14 July 2022 13:20:13

Originally Posted by: superteacher 


 


 


They also use old data. They are shockingly poor.



Shouldn't be two week old data though!

Camberley, Surrey
Brian Gaze
14 July 2022 13:25:42

MOGREPS 6z ratchet things up a little further in southern and central regions.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&chartname=mogrepstmp&chartlocation=peterborough


PS: I'll open a new thread for the 12z updates at about 15:00.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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superteacher
14 July 2022 13:28:24

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


MOGREPS 6z ratchet things up a little further in southern and central regions.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&chartname=mogrepstmp&chartlocation=peterborough


PS: I'll open a new thread for the 12z updates at about 15:00.



Surely these upgrades can't keep on coming?

Quantum
14 July 2022 13:28:59

Originally Posted by: superteacher 


 


Surely these upgrades can't keep on coming?



Tbf I think the 6Z GFS was a downgrade on the 0Z ensemble set though the OP was a bit warmer.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2022 13:48:06

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


One for you Caz. 'Potential temp' chart (latest ICON) for Tues shows hottest temps around the S. Yorks area. I'm still rooting for Donny to nab the title of recording the highest England temp on record. 



 


I wouldn’t mind getting the record if it was just a quick blast of heat!  We’re just back from buying a paddling pool and water play for Eden, one that’s big enough for granny to sit in as well!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Chunky Pea
14 July 2022 14:00:23

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I wouldn’t mind getting the record if it was just a quick blast of heat!  We’re just back from buying a paddling pool and water play for Eden, one that’s big enough for granny to sit in as well!  




Enjoy! 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
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